Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Enter your odds, the true fair probability, and your stake to see whether a bet has positive or negative expected value.
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| American odds | Fair win % | Stake |
|---|---|---|
% | $ |
Expected value
+$5.00
EV %
+5.00%
Implied book %
52.38%
Decimal odds
1.909
Frequently Asked Questions
What is expected value (EV) in sports betting?
Expected value is the average amount you stand to win or lose per bet over the long run. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable over time; a negative EV (-EV) means you'll lose money on average. Sharp bettors focus on finding +EV bets consistently.
How do I determine the fair win probability?
You can estimate fair probability by devigging sharp sportsbook lines (like Pinnacle or Circa), using statistical models, or comparing consensus odds across many books. Our devig calculator can help you remove the vig from two-way odds.
What EV percentage is considered good?
Any positive EV is theoretically worth betting. Most professional bettors target bets with at least 2-5% EV. Higher EV bets are rarer but more profitable per wager. Even a small edge compounds significantly over hundreds of bets.
Does +EV mean I will win every bet?
No. +EV means the bet is profitable in expectation over many repetitions. You will still lose individual bets — variance is inherent in betting. The edge only manifests over a large sample size, which is why bankroll management is critical.
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