HR Props Cheat Sheet

A 1-10 composite rating that combines park HR factor (30%), game total (20%), pitcher HR vulnerability (20%), weather conditions (15%), and lineup power (15%). Higher scores indicate games more likely to produce home runs.

A 0-100 composite of barrel rate (30%), hard hit rate (20%), isolated power (20%), HR rate (20%), and exit velocity (10%). It uses the platoon-relevant split when the opposing pitcher's hand is known.

Warm temperatures (75°F+) and wind blowing out boost HR probability. Cold temps and wind blowing in suppress it. Dome and retractable-roof stadiums are neutral. Look for the HR+ or HR- indicator.

Barrel rate is the strongest single predictor of HR power. Combined with exit velocity, launch angle, and isolated power, these Statcast metrics capture a batter's true HR ability better than traditional stats.