Week 6 is here, and the five picks below come straight off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers for the end zone plays, Prop Streaks for the quarterbacks, and Line Shopping for the spot where one book is paying more than the rest of the market for the same bet.
No hand-waving. The receipts are printed under each pick exactly as the sheets produced them, so you can see the streak, the hit rate, the red zone share or the price gap that put the name on the list and decide for yourself whether the number matches the matchup.
The picks for Week 6
Kyren Williams, Anytime TD (-190 at ESPN BET)
- 2 GAME TD STREAK
- 88% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.12 TDS/GAME L8G
- 63% RZ CARRIES
- ARI @ LAR, Sun 4:05pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Williams owns the part of the Rams offense that decides touchdowns: 63% of the red zone carries belong to him, and Arizona has to stop him on the goal line rather than hope the ball goes elsewhere. He has scored in back to back games and the hit rate over his recent sample backs up the short price. This is a favourite you are paying for, not a reach, but the price leaves no room for a quiet afternoon.
Jordan Love, Pass TDs Over 1.5 (-159 at betPARX)
- OVER IN 6 STRAIGHT
- 80% OVER L10
- 60% OVER L20G
- 80% HIT RATE VS 61% BREAK-EVEN AT -159
- DAL @ GB, Sun 8:20pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Love has gone over this number in six straight, and the Prop Streaks sheet has him at 80% over his last ten, which is comfortably clear of what -159 needs to break even. Sunday night against Dallas is the kind of game script that keeps Green Bay throwing in scoring range rather than grinding out a lead. The longer sample is cooler than the recent run, so this leans on the current form holding.
Xavier Worthy, Anytime TD (+190 at Bally Bet)
- +190 at Bally Bet vs +140 consensus
- 7.2 pts of price better than the market across 12 books
- Next best: +190 at betPARX
- LAC @ KC, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Same bet, better number. The consensus across the market has Worthy at +140 for a touchdown against the Chargers, and Bally Bet is sitting well above that. Nothing about the player changes here; the edge is entirely in where you place it, so if the price comes back toward the field, the reason to bet it goes with it.
Puka Nacua, Anytime TD (-145 at ESPN BET)
- 2 GAME TD STREAK
- VS #32 WORST WR DEF
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 0.88 TDS/GAME L8G
- ARI @ LAR, Sun 4:05pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Arizona ranks 32nd against wide receivers, which is the worst matchup available this week, and Nacua is the target the Rams go to when they get close. He has found the end zone in each of his last two games, so the recent form and the opponent point the same direction. The obvious wrinkle is that Williams is on the same sheet from the same game, and the goal line work only splits so many ways.
Geno Smith, Pass TDs Over 0.5 (-235 at Fanatics)
- OVER IN 4 STRAIGHT
- 90% OVER L10
- 75% OVER L20G
- 90% HIT RATE VS 70% BREAK-EVEN AT -235
- NYJ @ NE, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Smith has cleared this in four straight and has been over in 90% of his last ten, which is the kind of rate a price like -235 demands before it is worth touching. One touchdown pass is a low bar, and the Jets would need a thoroughly ugly early window in New England to miss it. Price in that this pays little and costs plenty when it goes wrong.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free column is three or five names a week. A subscription is the whole board: every PropsEdge sheet refreshed each week, including the First TD sheet that ranks who opens the scoring game by game, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking your own card off the same data, and the line-shopping feed that catches prices like the Worthy number above while they are still there. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
Cover photo: Guywelch2000, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (source)
