Week 6 is here, and the five picks below all came off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks and Line Shopping. Two touchdown props, two streak plays on passing touchdowns, and one spot where a single book is out of step with the rest of the market.
The receipts sit under each pick: the streak, the hit rate, the defensive rank, the price gap. Nothing is hidden behind a paywall here, so read the bullets before you read my words and decide whether the evidence says what I think it says.
The picks for Week 6
Javonte Williams, Anytime TD (-210 at BetMGM)
- 3 GAME TD STREAK
- VS #30 WORST RB DEF
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.12 TDS/GAME L8G
- DAL @ GB, Sun 8:20pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Williams has found the end zone in three straight and draws the 30th-ranked run defense on Sunday night, which is about as clean as the TD Scorers sheet gets. The usage behind the streak matters more than the streak itself: he is the one carrying the short-yardage work, so the touchdown chances keep arriving whether the game script is ahead or behind. The price is steep, and it should be at this matchup.
Justin Herbert, Pass TDs Over 0.5 (-213 at Caesars)
- OVER IN 5 STRAIGHT
- 90% OVER L10
- 90% OVER L20G
- 90% HIT RATE VS 68% BREAK-EVEN AT -213
- LAC @ KC, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Herbert has cleared this number in 90% of his last 20 games, which is a long enough sample that it is not just a hot month. Kansas City is the sort of opponent that keeps a quarterback throwing late, and this only asks for one touchdown pass. The hit rate on the sheet sits clear of what -213 needs to break even, which is the whole reason the Prop Streaks sheet flagged it.
Jayden Daniels, Pass TDs Over 1.5 (+180 at Bet365)
- +180 at Bet365 vs +133 consensus
- 7.2 pts of price better than the market across 9 books
- Next best: +146 at DraftKings
- WAS @ SF, Mon 8:15pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This one is a price story first. Consensus across nine books is +133 and Bet365 is sitting at +180, with the next best number well short of that. Same bet, same Monday night game, materially more back if Daniels throws a second touchdown, so if you are shopping at all, shop this one before the number comes back toward the field.
Josh Allen, Anytime TD (-160 at Fanatics)
- 5 GAME TD STREAK
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.25 TDS/GAME L8G
- 38% RZ CARRIES
- BUF @ LV, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Allen has scored in five straight, and the reason is on the sheet: he takes 38% of his team's red zone carries. That is a quarterback being used as the goal line back, which turns every trip inside the twenty into a live ticket. Las Vegas is the kind of spot where Buffalo should get a few of those trips.
Brock Purdy, Pass TDs Over 1.5 (-213 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 5 STRAIGHT
- 80% OVER L10
- 75% OVER L20G
- 80% HIT RATE VS 68% BREAK-EVEN AT -213
- WAS @ SF, Mon 8:15pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Purdy has gone over this line in five straight and in 80% of his last ten, so the recent form is running ahead of the longer sample rather than behind it. Two touchdown passes is a real ask at this price, but the break-even it needs sits under the rate he has been posting. Monday night, same game as the Daniels pick, which is worth knowing if you care about correlated exposure.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free column is three or five picks a week. A subscriber gets the full sheets every Tuesday: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks, Line Shopping and the First TD sheet, which goes game by game on who is most likely to score the opening touchdown. On top of that, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for putting your own cards together, and the line-shopping feed that shows which book is off the market in real time, which is how a number like the Bet365 price above gets found in the first place. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
