Free Cheat Sheet — Monday, November 9
The best anytime touchdown bets on this NFL slate, ranked by our TD composite — free, updated all week.
Touchdowns follow opportunity, not highlight reels. The most reliable anytime TD bets belong to players who get the ball where the field shrinks: backs with big red-zone carry shares and receivers who command targets inside the 20. Season yardage totals can mislead — a 1,000-yard receiver who never sees goal-line work scores far less often than his stat line suggests.
Our TD score starts with results — how often a player has actually scored over his last eight games — then adjusts for the things that sustain or break that form: red-zone role, the opponent's touchdown defense against his specific position, and whether the current streak is signal or luck. Small samples get shrunk toward league average so one hot fortnight doesn't top the sheet.
Price matters as much as the pick. Anytime TD odds vary wildly across sportsbooks — the same player can be -120 at one book and +105 at another — so line shopping is worth more here than in almost any other NFL market. Our members see every book's price side by side; the free sheet shows the single best available price for each pick.
Because even strong picks miss 40-50% of the time, treat anytime TDs as a volume market: disciplined stakes, consistent small edges, and no chasing. Our EV calculator shows what a given edge is worth per bet.
Wins if the player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown at any point — not a passing TD for the QB. Most popular NFL scorer market; prices usually run from about −200 (elite goal-line backs) out to +500+ for depth options.
A 0–100 TD score answers “who’s most likely to score?” Weights: market price, red-zone role (carries for backs, targets for receivers), recent TD hit rate, matchup vs position, and TDs/game — plus small STREAK / VALUE boosts. Longshots with elite RZ + soft defense can still crack the board.
League-average anytime TD probability for a priced skill player is roughly 35%. Players scoring in 50%+ of recent games are strong anchors; 60%+ is elite (usually RZ backs and alpha WRs). Always weigh the price: a 55% scorer at −150 can be worse value than a 40% scorer at +185.
Yes, once: the last-8 window reaches into last season until a player has 8 current-year games. Only real logged games — nothing projected. Larger sample wins ties.
The top picks of the slate are free. PropsEdge members get the full ranked sheet: every qualifying player with TD windows, RZ carries/targets, streaks, matchup ranks, and anytime TD odds across 15+ sportsbooks.
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