Free Cheat Sheet — Monday, November 16
The biggest opening-to-now prop moves across sportsbooks — where the market is going before kickoff. Free, updated all week.
Sportsbooks do not move numbers for fun. Every line move is a reaction — to sharp bets, injury news, practice reports, or a competitor’s number. Tracked across the whole market, those reactions form the clearest public signal of what informed money thinks, days before kickoff.
The tactical value is in the lag. Books do not move together: when four books jump a rushing line from 46.5 to 49.5 and a fifth is still hanging 47.5, that fifth book is offering yesterday’s price on today’s information. Steam chasers pay the new number; disciplined bettors hunt the stale one.
Direction matters as much as size. A line moving up says the market expects more — volume, health, game script. A price getting juiced while the line holds is the early tell that a full move is coming.
Pair this with the Line Shopping sheet — steam creates exactly the off-market gaps that sheet is built to catch.
Coordinated line movement across multiple sportsbooks in a short window — usually triggered by sharp action or breaking news. When a prop that opened 46.5 sits at 49.5 across the market, books are telling you their opinion of the player’s role changed.
For every prop we snapshot each book’s main line over time (the line with the most balanced juice), build a cross-book median at each timestamp, and compare the earliest consensus to the latest. Moves need multiple books and real hours between snapshots to count.
The evidence favors the move: closing lines are sharper than openers, so the market usually moves toward truth. But chasing after the move means taking a worse number. The best play is finding a book that has NOT moved yet — you get the pre-steam price on the post-steam opinion.
The line stayed the same but the price on one side got more expensive — e.g. the over moving from -110 to -135. It is the first stage of a move: books shade the price before they move the number.
The biggest moves of the week are free. PropsEdge members get the full board with open/current consensus, per-book detail, juice shifts, and the line-movement history on every player prop page.
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