TD Matchups Cheat Sheet

That defense has allowed 1.53 times the league-average rushing + receiving touchdowns per game to that spot in the pecking order over the selected range. ×1.00 is average; above it (teal) the defense leaks to that role, below it (red) it shuts it down.

By usage, not the depth chart: receivers and tight ends by targets, backs by carries plus targets, over each player’s recent games. Players ruled out are skipped, so the next man up moves into the role.

His own rushing + receiving TDs per game, blended toward a typical player in his role when the sample is small, multiplied by the defense’s leak to that role. That rate becomes the chance of at least one TD, and Edge compares it with the best anytime price’s implied chance.

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