Free Cheat Sheet — Week 5
TD Matchups Cheat Sheet
Where each defense gives up touchdowns, spot by spot in the pecking order, and who on the other side is lined up to cash in. One game free, the full slate for members.
Free game · Week 5 · TB @ DAL
How to read this ▸How to read this ▾
- Formation map — each bubble is a spot in the offense’s pecking order: WR1-3 and TE1-2 by targets, RB1-2 by touches. Spots are roles laid out as a formation, not where a player lines up. Tap a bubble to jump to the player.
- Leak (×) — rushing + receiving TDs the other defense has allowed per game to that role over the chosen range (L3 / L5 / L10 / L17), against the league rate. ×1.00 is average, green leaks more, red is stingy.
- Own rate — the player’s own rushing + receiving TDs per game over the same range. With only a few games it is blended toward what a typical player in his role scores, so one lucky or quiet week does not swing it. Tap a player to see the numbers.
- TD chance — own rate × the defense’s leak to his role, turned into the chance of at least one TD, with the fair price under it.
- Edge — TD chance minus the chance the best anytime price implies, in points. Positive means the price looks long.
- TD games — games he scored in, of his last N. RZ looks — red-zone carries + targets per game, with his rank in this game.
TB @ DAL
Fri 12:15 AMO/U 47.5TB offense into the DAL D
DAL defense, last 10 games
vs WR
×1.34
vs TE
×1.07
vs RB
×1.48
vs QB
×1.00
Leakiest to WR3 (×2.88, #32) · tightest on TE1 (×0.97, #18)
DAL offense into the TB D
TB defense, last 10 games
vs WR
×0.77
vs TE
×1.85
vs RB
×0.60
vs QB
×1.00
Leakiest to TE2 (×2.19, #31) · tightest on RB1 (×0.53, #4)
TE1vs TBTD chance51%Edge+22.6Leak×1.89TD games3/10tgt/g4.1RZ looks1.0 · #7
RB2vs DALTD chance42%Edge+25.0Leak×1.52TD games4/10touch/g10.9RZ looks2.0 · #3
WR3vs DALTD chance41%Edge+24.8Leak×2.88TD games2/10tgt/g5.2RZ looks0.6 · #11
RBvs DALTD chance41%Edge+21.4Leak×1.48TD games4/10touch/g4.1RZ looks1.6 · #4
RB1vs DALTD chance40%Edge+6.4Leak×1.39TD games3/10touch/g18.9RZ looks2.1 · #2
RB1vs TBTD chance38%Edge−28.6Leak×0.53TD games7/10touch/g18.5RZ looks4.5 · #1
WR1vs TBTD chance34%Edge−16.8Leak×0.91TD games4/10tgt/g9.2RZ looks1.4 · #5
WR2vs DALTD chance30%Edge+14.2Leak×1.44TD games1/4tgt/g4.0RZ looks0.5 · #13
WR1vs DALTD chance16%Edge−9.6Leak×1.12TD games1/10tgt/g5.8RZ looks0.5 · #14
WR3vs TBTD chance14%Edge−10.5Leak×0.81TD games2/10tgt/g5.4RZ looks0.9 · #8
TE1vs DALTD chance13%Edge−1.3Leak×0.97TD games1/10tgt/g5.1RZ looks0.6 · #10
QBvs DALTD chance11%Edge−14.3Leak×1.00TD games0/2rush/g4.5RZ looks0.5 · #12
WR2vs TBTD chance7%Edge−36.1Leak×0.58TD games1/10tgt/g7.4RZ looks1.3 · #6
RB2vs TBTD chance5%Edge−3.0Leak×0.90TD games0/10touch/g5.9RZ looks0.7 · #9
QBvs TBTD chance4%Edge−10.3Leak×1.00TD games0/10rush/g2.7RZ looks0.5 · #16
14 more games this week
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This is a preview — members see the full TD Scorers Cheat Sheet.
Every game, every player, full stat breakdowns, live odds comparison across 15+ sportsbooks, and every other daily cheat sheet.
Unlock the Full SheetTouchdowns don’t leak evenly. One defense bleeds them to the lead back, another to the slot receiver behind the star. This sheet draws each offense as a formation against the other team’s defense and sizes every spot by how many TDs that defense has allowed to it, against the league rate.
Below the maps, every skill player in the game gets a TD chance built from his own scoring rate and that leak, the fair price it implies, his edge against the best anytime TD odds, his volume and his red-zone looks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does ×1.53 mean on a bubble?
That defense has allowed 1.53 times the league-average rushing + receiving touchdowns per game to that spot in the pecking order over the selected range. ×1.00 is average; above it (teal) the defense leaks to that role, below it (red) it shuts it down.
How are WR1, WR2 and RB1 decided?
By usage, not the depth chart: receivers and tight ends by targets, backs by carries plus targets, over each player’s recent games. Players ruled out are skipped, so the next man up moves into the role.
How is a player’s TD chance calculated?
His own rushing + receiving TDs per game, blended toward a typical player in his role when the sample is small, multiplied by the defense’s leak to that role. That rate becomes the chance of at least one TD, and Edge compares it with the best anytime price’s implied chance.
Why is only one game free?
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