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Free Cheat Sheet — Week 10

TD Matchups Cheat Sheet

Where each defense gives up touchdowns, spot by spot in the pecking order, and who on the other side is lined up to cash in. One game free, the full slate for members.

Free game · Week 10 · WAS @ NYG

How to read this ▸How to read this ▾
  • Formation map — each bubble is a spot in the offense’s pecking order: WR1-3 and TE1-2 by targets, RB1-2 by touches. Spots are roles laid out as a formation, not where a player lines up. Tap a bubble to jump to the player.
  • Leak (×) — rushing + receiving TDs the other defense has allowed per game to that role over the chosen range (L3 / L5 / L10 / L17), against the league rate. ×1.00 is average, green leaks more, red is stingy.
  • Own rate — the player’s own rushing + receiving TDs per game over the same range. With only a few games it is blended toward what a typical player in his role scores, so one lucky or quiet week does not swing it. Tap a player to see the numbers.
  • TD chance — own rate × the defense’s leak to his role, turned into the chance of at least one TD, with the fair price under it.
  • Edge — TD chance minus the chance the best anytime price implies, in points. Positive means the price looks long.
  • TD games — games he scored in, of his last N. RZ looks — red-zone carries + targets per game, with his rank in this game.
WASWAS @ NYGNYGThu 8:15 PMO/U 41.5
Range
WAS

WAS offense into the NYG D

NYG defense, last 10 games

#15 of 32
WAS implied 20.5 pts · 49% of the 41.5 total+2.5 dog
WR1: NYG allows 0.32 TD/g (×0.88, #15 of 32) · Stefon Diggs +250×0.88WR1 Diggs+250WR2: NYG allows 0.28 TD/g (×1.16, #24 of 32) · Antonio Williams +290×1.16WR2 Williams+290WR3: NYG allows 0.18 TD/g (×1.43, #29 of 32) · Treylon Burks +525×1.43WR3 Burks+525TE1: NYG allows 0.09 TD/g (×0.29, #4 of 32) · Chigoziem Okonkwo +300×0.29TE1 Okonkwo+300TE2: NYG allows 0.10 TD/g (×0.98, #18 of 32) · Colson Yankoff +3000×0.98TE2 Yankoff+3000QB: NYG allows 0.26 TD/g (×1.53, #29 of 32)×1.53QB —RB1: NYG allows 0.60 TD/g (×1.02, #20 of 32)×1.02RB1 —RB2: NYG allows 0.12 TD/g (×0.67, #14 of 32) · Rachaad White +180×0.67RB2 White+180

vs WR

×1.09

vs TE

×0.58

vs RB

×1.03

vs QB

×1.53

Leakiest to vs QB (×1.53, #29) · tightest on TE1 (×0.29, #4)

NYG

NYG offense into the WAS D

WAS defense, last 10 games

#26 of 32
NYG implied 21.5 pts · 52% of the 41.5 total-2.5 fav
WR1: WAS allows 0.53 TD/g (×1.48, #31 of 32) · Malik Nabers +165×1.48WR1 Nabers+165WR2: WAS allows 0.14 TD/g (×0.58, #9 of 32) · Malachi Fields +475×0.58WR2 Fields+475WR3: WAS allows 0.04 TD/g (×0.29, #8 of 32) · Darnell Mooney +800×0.29WR3 Mooney+800TE1: WAS allows 0.66 TD/g (×2.10, #32 of 32) · Isaiah Likely +200×2.10TE1 Likely+200TE2: WAS allows 0.17 TD/g (×1.67, #31 of 32) · Theo Johnson +900×1.67TE2 Johnson+900QB: WAS allows 0.12 TD/g (×0.70, #11 of 32)×0.70QB —RB1: WAS allows 0.60 TD/g (×1.02, #22 of 32) · Cam Skattebo +130×1.02RB1 Skattebo+130RB2: WAS allows 0.20 TD/g (×1.06, #23 of 32) · Devin Singletary +275×1.06RB2 Singletary+275

vs WR

×1.01

vs TE

×1.76

vs RB

×0.95

vs QB

×0.70

Leakiest to TE1 (×2.10, #32) · tightest on WR3 (×0.29, #8)

PlayerAny TDTD chanceEdgeLeakTD gamesVolumeRZ looks
  • NYG
    Isaiah Likely
    TE1

    NYG vs WAS · proj 1.12 TD/g

    67%fair -206
    +34.0
    ×2.10
    4/10
    7.5tgt/g
    1.14 of 28
  • NYG
    Cam Skattebo
    RB1QUES

    NYG vs WAS · proj 0.69 TD/g

    50%fair +101
    +6.2
    ×1.02
    5/10
    15.9touch/g
    2.11 of 28
  • WAS
    Jayden Daniels
    QB

    WAS vs NYG · proj 0.53 TD/g

    41%fair +142
    +13.5
    ×1.53
    3/10
    6.4rush/g
    1.05 of 28
  • WAS
    Stefon Diggs
    WR1

    WAS vs NYG · proj 0.48 TD/g

    38%fair +162
    +9.6
    ×0.88
    5/10
    6.4tgt/g
    0.78 of 28
  • NYG
    Devin Singletary
    RB2

    NYG vs WAS · proj 0.45 TD/g

    36%fair +175
    +9.8
    ×1.06
    5/10
    10.5touch/g
    1.23 of 28
  • NYG
    Malik Nabers
    WR1

    NYG vs WAS · proj 0.35 TD/g

    30%fair +239
    −8.2
    ×1.48
    2/10
    8.9tgt/g
    1.06 of 28
  • NYG
    Phil Mafah
    RB

    NYG vs WAS · proj 0.29 TD/g

    26%fair +291
    +20.8
    ×0.95
    1/2
    3.5touch/g
    0.511 of 28
  • WAS
    Treylon Burks
    WR3QUES

    WAS vs NYG · proj 0.26 TD/g

    23%fair +335
    +7.0
    ×1.43
    2/10
    3.5tgt/g
    0.69 of 28
  • WAS
    Van Jefferson
    WR

    WAS vs NYG · proj 0.20 TD/g

    18%fair +454
    +3.8
    ×1.09
    2/10
    3.4tgt/g
    0.217 of 28
  • WAS
    Rachaad White
    RB2

    WAS vs NYG · proj 0.18 TD/g

    17%fair +495
    −18.9
    ×0.67
    3/10
    9.5touch/g
    1.42 of 28
  • WAS
    Antonio Williams
    WR2

    WAS vs NYG · proj 0.18 TD/g

    17%fair +498
    −8.9
    ×1.16
    1/8
    4.9tgt/g
    0.316 of 28
  • NYG
    Theo Johnson
    TE2

    NYG vs WAS · proj 0.17 TD/g

    15%fair +547
    +5.5
    ×1.67
    1/10
    2.8tgt/g
    0.414 of 28
  • NYG
    J.J. McCarthy
    QBQUES

    NYG vs WAS · proj 0.14 TD/g

    13%fair +686
    −5.1
    ×0.70
    2/10
    2.5rush/g
    0.413 of 28
  • NYG
    Malachi Fields
    WR2

    NYG vs WAS · proj 0.09 TD/g

    9%fair +1050
    −8.7
    ×0.58
    1/8
    4.4tgt/g
    0.510 of 28
  • WAS
    Chigoziem Okonkwo
    TE1QUES

    WAS vs NYG · proj 0.07 TD/g

    6%fair +1489
    −18.7
    ×0.29
    2/10
    5.7tgt/g
    0.512 of 28
  • WAS
    Austin Ekeler
    RB

    WAS vs NYG · proj 0.06 TD/g

    6%fair +1705
    −17.7
    ×1.03
    0/7
    7.7touch/g
    1.07 of 28
  • NYG
    Darnell Mooney
    WR3QUES

    NYG vs WAS · proj 0.01 TD/g

    1%fair +12450
    −10.3
    ×0.29
    0/10
    3.6tgt/g
    0.218 of 28
  • NYG

    Isaiah Likely

    TE1vs WAS
    TD chance67%
    Edge+34.0
    Leak×2.10
    TD games4/10
    tgt/g7.5
    RZ looks1.1 · #4
  • NYG

    Cam Skattebo

    RB1QUESvs WAS
    TD chance50%
    Edge+6.2
    Leak×1.02
    TD games5/10
    touch/g15.9
    RZ looks2.1 · #1
  • WAS

    Jayden Daniels

    QBvs NYG
    TD chance41%
    Edge+13.5
    Leak×1.53
    TD games3/10
    rush/g6.4
    RZ looks1.0 · #5
  • WAS

    Stefon Diggs

    WR1vs NYG
    TD chance38%
    Edge+9.6
    Leak×0.88
    TD games5/10
    tgt/g6.4
    RZ looks0.7 · #8
  • NYG

    Devin Singletary

    RB2vs WAS
    TD chance36%
    Edge+9.8
    Leak×1.06
    TD games5/10
    touch/g10.5
    RZ looks1.2 · #3
  • NYG

    Malik Nabers

    WR1vs WAS
    TD chance30%
    Edge−8.2
    Leak×1.48
    TD games2/10
    tgt/g8.9
    RZ looks1.0 · #6
  • NYG

    Phil Mafah

    RBvs WAS
    TD chance26%
    Edge+20.8
    Leak×0.95
    TD games1/2
    touch/g3.5
    RZ looks0.5 · #11
  • WAS

    Treylon Burks

    WR3QUESvs NYG
    TD chance23%
    Edge+7.0
    Leak×1.43
    TD games2/10
    tgt/g3.5
    RZ looks0.6 · #9
  • WAS

    Van Jefferson

    WRvs NYG
    TD chance18%
    Edge+3.8
    Leak×1.09
    TD games2/10
    tgt/g3.4
    RZ looks0.2 · #17
  • WAS

    Rachaad White

    RB2vs NYG
    TD chance17%
    Edge−18.9
    Leak×0.67
    TD games3/10
    touch/g9.5
    RZ looks1.4 · #2
  • WAS

    Antonio Williams

    WR2vs NYG
    TD chance17%
    Edge−8.9
    Leak×1.16
    TD games1/8
    tgt/g4.9
    RZ looks0.3 · #16
  • NYG

    Theo Johnson

    TE2vs WAS
    TD chance15%
    Edge+5.5
    Leak×1.67
    TD games1/10
    tgt/g2.8
    RZ looks0.4 · #14
  • NYG

    J.J. McCarthy

    QBQUESvs WAS
    TD chance13%
    Edge−5.1
    Leak×0.70
    TD games2/10
    rush/g2.5
    RZ looks0.4 · #13
  • NYG

    Malachi Fields

    WR2vs WAS
    TD chance9%
    Edge−8.7
    Leak×0.58
    TD games1/8
    tgt/g4.4
    RZ looks0.5 · #10
  • WAS

    Chigoziem Okonkwo

    TE1QUESvs NYG
    TD chance6%
    Edge−18.7
    Leak×0.29
    TD games2/10
    tgt/g5.7
    RZ looks0.5 · #12
  • WAS

    Austin Ekeler

    RBvs NYG
    TD chance6%
    Edge−17.7
    Leak×1.03
    TD games0/7
    touch/g7.7
    RZ looks1.0 · #7
  • NYG

    Darnell Mooney

    WR3QUESvs WAS
    TD chance1%
    Edge−10.3
    Leak×0.29
    TD games0/10
    tgt/g3.6
    RZ looks0.2 · #18

13 more games this week

Members open every game with the same detail.

NE @ DETSun 9:30 AMBUF @ NYJSun 1:00 PMCAR @ NOSun 1:00 PMHOU @ CLESun 1:00 PMJAX @ TENSun 1:00 PMKC @ ATLSun 1:00 PMMIA @ INDSun 1:00 PMMIN @ GBSun 1:00 PMLAR @ ARISun 4:05 PMSEA @ LVSun 4:05 PMSF @ DALSun 4:25 PMPIT @ CINSun 8:20 PMLAC @ BALMon 8:15 PM
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Touchdowns don’t leak evenly. One defense bleeds them to the lead back, another to the slot receiver behind the star. This sheet draws each offense as a formation against the other team’s defense and sizes every spot by how many TDs that defense has allowed to it, against the league rate.

Below the maps, every skill player in the game gets a TD chance built from his own scoring rate and that leak, the fair price it implies, his edge against the best anytime TD odds, his volume and his red-zone looks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does ×1.53 mean on a bubble?

That defense has allowed 1.53 times the league-average rushing + receiving touchdowns per game to that spot in the pecking order over the selected range. ×1.00 is average; above it (teal) the defense leaks to that role, below it (red) it shuts it down.

How are WR1, WR2 and RB1 decided?

By usage, not the depth chart: receivers and tight ends by targets, backs by carries plus targets, over each player’s recent games. Players ruled out are skipped, so the next man up moves into the role.

How is a player’s TD chance calculated?

His own rushing + receiving TDs per game, blended toward a typical player in his role when the sample is small, multiplied by the defense’s leak to that role. That rate becomes the chance of at least one TD, and Edge compares it with the best anytime price’s implied chance.

Why is only one game free?

The free page shows the next game on the slate in full. Members see every game, every week, with the same detail.

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