NHL Goalie Saves Cheat Sheet

Expected shots against (the opponent's shots for per game and his own team's shots against, averaged) times his save %, which is shrunk toward the league rate over his last 40 starts so a hot month does not read as a new level. The spread around it is his own start-to-start spread, so a goalie whose workload swings gets a wider distribution and a P(over) closer to 50%.

A goalie facing a strong power play, or a team that draws a lot of penalties, will see more shorthanded shots, which go in at roughly twice the rate of even-strength ones. His PP save % tells you how he has handled those.

Games with 40+ minutes in net. A relief appearance or a start he was pulled from early is not a game a book would grade the same way, so hit rates and averages leave those out.

The books tell us: a goalie appears here once a sportsbook has priced his saves. Lines usually go up after the morning skate, so the sheet fills in through the afternoon.