Free Cheat Sheet — Monday, October 26
Top speed vs the defenders assigned to chase it — the yardage edges that come from pure speed, not scheme. Free, updated all week.
Every yardage prop is priced on volume and matchup, and almost never on the one thing that decides whether a routine touch becomes an explosive play: whether the ball carrier is simply faster than the man chasing him. Tracking data measures exactly that, for every player, every week.
This sheet takes each running back and receiver’s top speed and burst, then lines it up against the linebackers, safeties and corners the opponent actually uses in coverage and pursuit. The result is a speed score that says who is likely to break one, not just who gets the ball.
Rushing and receiving yards overs are where the edge shows up. A high speed score paired with a strong L10 over rate is the shape to look for. Members see the full defender-by-defender breakdown for every player on the slate.
Want the route-level version of the same idea? Our Route Mismatches sheet crosses each receiver’s route tree with the routes his opponent defends worst.
A ball carrier or receiver whose top speed clearly beats the defenders who will be chasing him this week: the linebackers on a running back, the safeties and corners on a receiver. When the gap is big enough, one missed tackle turns into a long run instead of a five-yard gain.
Player-tracking data: each player’s top speed in miles per hour and acceleration (burst) from in-game tracking, matched against the same numbers for the opponent’s coverage players, refreshed weekly through the season.
A 0–100 score combining the player’s top speed, his burst, and his edge over the fastest defender he is likely to see. A high score means he is faster than everyone assigned to him, with the acceleration to use it.
Rushing and receiving yards overs are the natural markets, because long plays are what clear a yardage line in one snap. Check the L10 over rate before betting, so you pair the speed edge with a player who has actually been beating his number.
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