NHL Shots on Goal Cheat Sheet

His shots per 60 minutes over his last 82 games (shrunk toward his position's league rate), times the ice time he has been getting lately (60/40 of his last 5 and last 20), times a damped factor for what the opponent allows to his position. The chance of the Over is then a Poisson at that mean. Our final P(over) is half that, half the no-vig market, and EV is measured at the best price on each side.

How many games he went OVER this exact line in his last 5, 10, 20, this season and head-to-head against tonight's opponent. Tap the row for the full ladder (2+, 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+ shots) so you can see whether an alternate line is the better bet.

Shot attempts from the play-by-play: every attempt (on goal, missed, blocked), the unblocked ones, the ones from the slot area, and the closest high-danger ones. Attempts are more stable than shots on goal because blocks and misses are noise around the same underlying volume.

A line set high by his season average can be a good Under when his ice time has dropped or the opponent blocks a lot of shots. The pick is simply the side with the better EV; when neither side is +EV, it still names the less bad one.

Every skater with a shots-on-goal line at a real sportsbook for a game that has not started. Pick'em apps and exchanges do not count. Updated every 30 minutes.