Free Cheat Sheet — Monday, November 16
Players smashing — or dying under — their current posted line, ranked by directional hit rate. Free, updated all week.
The most popular prop angle in football is also the simplest: find players who keep beating the number. When a receiver has cleared his receiving yards line in nine of his last ten games, one of two things is true — the market is slow to reprice his role, or the run is luck about to regress. Telling those apart is the whole game.
Our streak score leans on sample and recency: the last ten games matter most, the last twenty and the full season sanity-check the run, and an active streak adds a kicker. We only score the CURRENT posted line, not a stale season average — a 62.5 that kept hitting means nothing if books have since moved the number to 71.5.
Unders deserve equal attention. Books shade popular names because casual money always takes the over, so a fading role often keeps a fat line for weeks. The sheet surfaces both directions and shows the best price on the played side.
Streaks are a screener, not a system. Confirm the matchup and the role, then shop the price — our Line Shopping sheet shows when one book is paying meaningfully more for the same bet.
A player whose current posted line — the exact number books are hanging this week — has been clearing (or dying under) at an extreme rate in his recent games. An 80% over rate is a smash spot; an 80% under rate is a fade. Both directions are plays.
Each spot gets a streak score: a recency-weighted blend of L5, L10, L20, and season hit rates in the played direction, plus a kicker for the active streak. Hard gates: at least 8 logged games and a 70%+ directional rate over the last 10.
Partly. Long directional runs cluster among players whose real role has outgrown (or shrunk below) the number books keep posting — that part is signal. But regression is real and books adjust, so treat the sheet as a screener: confirm the role still holds and shop the price before betting.
The posted line has been dying — the player has finished under it in most recent games. Books are often slow to drop a popular name’s line, which keeps the under live for weeks. Fades are some of the most profitable prop bets because casual money is always on the over.
The top streak spots of the week are free. PropsEdge members get the full ranked sheet: every qualifying spot with game-by-game hit charts, L5/L10/L20/season rates, and live prices across 15+ sportsbooks.
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