Free Cheat Sheet — Monday, October 19
Who gets the ball inside the 20, whether the defense in front of them bends, and the chance he scores. Free, updated all week.
Yardage totals tell you who moves the ball. Touchdowns are scored in a much smaller place — inside the 20 — and the players who get the ball there are not always the ones who lead the box score. A back with 45 rushing yards and four carries from inside the 10 has a far better anytime-TD profile than a receiver piling up yards between the 20s.
This sheet starts with red-zone work share: the slice of his team's red-zone targets and carries each player actually receives, ranked against everyone at his position. It then asks how many red-zone trips his offense generates and how often the opponent lets those trips turn into touchdowns. Multiply the three and you have expected touchdowns; the Poisson chance of at least one is the headline number.
The free page shows this week's top TD chances. Members get every graded player on the slate with the edge against the best anytime-TD price, the full arithmetic behind each number, L5 / L8 / season splits, inside-the-10 usage, and both teams' red-zone offense and defense profiles for every game.
Prefer the price-first view? The TD Scorers sheet ranks the same market by hit rate and market-implied probability.
Touchdowns are scored inside the 20, so the only usage that matters for anytime TD props is red-zone usage. A red-zone matchup crosses how much of his team’s red-zone work a player gets with how often that team reaches the red zone and how badly this week’s opponent defends it — a goal-line back on a high-trip offense facing a defense that bleeds red-zone touchdowns.
Expected red-zone trips (his team’s trips per game, adjusted for the opponent) × expected TD per trip (his team’s conversion × the opponent’s conversion allowed, relative to league average) × his share of team red-zone touchdowns. Long TDs from outside the 20 are added back at a regressed rate. The result is expected touchdowns; TD chance is the Poisson probability of at least one score.
Play-by-play. Every red-zone carry and target is counted from the play log along with the team’s totals in the same games, and red-zone trips are built by segmenting drives on possession changes — so player, team and defense numbers all reconcile. Early in the season the windows reach back into last year; players who changed teams are tagged NEW TEAM.
The player’s share of all his team’s red-zone targets plus carries over the window. A 50% work share means half of everything the offense did inside the 20 went through him. The sheet ranks it against every graded player at his position so you can see whether he is the 2nd-biggest red-zone role among backs or the 40th.
Anytime TD is the natural market. Compare the model’s TD chance to the probability implied by the best posted price; members see that edge on every row along with the fair price, L5 / L8 / season splits, inside-the-10 usage, and the opponent’s recent red-zone form.
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