Week 9 gives us a full Sunday slate, and these five props come straight off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks, Line Shopping, Route Mismatches and Speed Mismatches. Nothing here is a hunch. Each one showed up on a sheet first and earned its spot second.
The receipts are printed under every pick, so you can see exactly what the sheet saw: streaks, hit rates, red zone share, coverage ranks and price gaps across books. Read them, decide for yourself, and shop your own number before you fire.
The picks for Week 9
Kyren Williams, Anytime TD (-139 at betPARX)
- 2 GAME TD STREAK
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 0.88 TDS/GAME L8G
- 56% RZ CARRIES
- LAR @ WAS, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Williams has scored in back-to-back games, and the sheet explains why that is not an accident: 56% of the Rams' red zone carries belong to him. Volume that close to the goal line is the most repeatable path to a touchdown prop cashing. Washington is the opponent in the 1:00pm window, and the price reflects that the market already knows about the role.
Ashton Jeanty, Rec Yds Over 32.5 (-118 at betPARX)
- OVER IN 6 STRAIGHT
- 70% OVER L10
- 50% OVER L20G
- 88% OVER LAST SEASON
- LV @ SF, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Jeanty has gone over this number in six straight, which is the kind of run that comes from a passing-game role rather than one loud afternoon. The longer samples back it up instead of cutting against it, and that matters more than any single week. Receiving work for a back tends to survive a game script going sideways in San Francisco.
Zonovan Knight, Anytime TD (+390 at betPARX)
- +390 at betPARX vs +230 consensus
- 9.9 pts of price better than the market across 8 books
- Next best: +390 at Bally Bet
- ARI @ SEA, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
This one is a pure price play off the Line Shopping sheet. betPARX is sitting at +390 while the consensus across eight books is considerably shorter, and the next best number matches rather than beats it. Same bet, same Seattle game, materially more money back if it lands, which is the only reason it is here.
Darren Waller, Rec Yds Over 17.5 (-114 at betPARX)
- 40% COMEBACKS — DEN #30 VS ROUTE
- 33% OUTS — DEN #32 VS ROUTE
- 70% OVER L10
- 70% HIT RATE VS 53% BREAK-EVEN AT -114
- DEN @ CAR, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Route Mismatches cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Waller lives on comebacks and outs, and Denver ranks 32nd against the out route. That is the specific concession this matchup offers, not a vague hope that the tight end gets involved. The Route Mismatches sheet also flags his hit rate as comfortably clear of what -114 needs.
Kenneth Walker III, Rush Yds Over 89.5 (-120 at ESPN BET)
- 21.3 MPH TOP SPEED
- +2.7 MPH VS NYJ COVERAGE
- 8.7 MPH/S BURST
- 60% OVER L10 (Rush Yds)
- NYJ @ KC, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Speed Mismatches cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The Speed Mismatches sheet has Walker running +2.7 mph faster than what the Jets have been asked to chase down. That gap is where a seven-yard carry turns into a thirty-yard one, and this number needs a chunk run or two to clear. The burst figure says the long gain is in his range on any given touch.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free column is a slice. A subscriber gets every sheet, every week: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks, Line Shopping, Route Mismatches, Speed Mismatches and the First TD sheet, which goes game by game on who is most likely to find the end zone first. On top of that, projections for every game, the pick builder for stacking your own card, and the line-shopping feed that flags when one book drifts away from the rest of the market, like the touchdown price above. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
Cover photo: Guywelch2000, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (source)
