Week 7 gives us five plays, pulled off three PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks and Line Shopping. Two touchdown prices, two yardage streaks, and one spot where a single book is paying well clear of what everyone else has posted.
The receipts are printed under each pick, same as always: the streak, the hit rate, the defensive rank, the price against the field. Read them before you read my sentences, because the bullets are the case and the words are just me telling you what they mean. We are 32-30, +4.0u on the season at a flat stake.
The picks for Week 7
Jahmyr Gibbs, Anytime TD (-310 at Fanatics)
- 6 GAME TD STREAK
- VS #29 WORST RB DEF
- 88% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.38 TDS/GAME L8G
- GB @ DET, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
This is a steep number for a touchdown prop and the sheet knows it, which is why the supporting lines have to be this loud. Gibbs has found the end zone in six straight, and Green Bay comes in as one of the softer defenses in the league against running backs. You are paying up for volume and goal-line work rather than hoping for a fluke score, and that is the only kind of favourite worth touching in this market.
Bryce Young, Pass Yds Over 260.5 (-116 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 7 STRAIGHT
- 70% OVER L10
- 40% OVER L20G
- 70% HIT RATE VS 54% BREAK-EVEN AT -116
- TB @ CAR, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Young has cleared this number in seven straight, and the Prop Streaks sheet flags the hit rate as sitting comfortably above what -116 needs to break even. The honest caveat is in the fourth bullet: stretch the sample back twenty games and the picture is much flatter, so this is a bet on the current version of him rather than the career one. Tampa Bay is a divisional opponent that tends to keep the ball moving, which is the kind of script that keeps a quarterback throwing late.
Demario Douglas, Rec Yds Over 39.5 (+165 at betPARX)
- +165 at betPARX vs +114 consensus
- 9 pts of price better than the market across 9 books
- Next best: +165 at Bally Bet
- NE @ CHI, Thu 8:15pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The edge here is the price, not a streak. Consensus across nine books sits at +114 and betPARX is posting +165 on the same number, with Bally Bet matching as the fallback if your first option moves. Thursday night means this one prices and settles before the rest of the card, so if you want it, the window is short.
Javonte Williams, Anytime TD (-185 at Courtside)
- 4 GAME TD STREAK
- VS #28 WORST RB DEF
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.12 TDS/GAME L8G
- DAL @ PHI, Mon 8:15pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Williams has scored in four straight and walks into a Philadelphia front that the sheet ranks 28th against running backs. The TD Scorers profile is the one I like best: a back getting the short-yardage work on a team that is finding the end zone, rather than a receiver needing a broken play. At -185 you are not getting a bargain, but the hit rate on the sheet has been running ahead of that price.
Jaylen Warren, Rec Yds Over 25.5 (-112 at Courtside)
- OVER IN 6 STRAIGHT
- 70% OVER L10
- 45% OVER L20G
- 70% HIT RATE VS 53% BREAK-EVEN AT -112
- PIT @ NO, Sun 9:30am ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Warren has gone over in six straight, and this is a low bar that only needs him to stay involved as a checkdown target. The twenty-game number is much closer to a coin flip, so treat this as a form bet in a game that kicks early in London. Receiving work for a back tends to hold up even when the run game does not, which is why this market is more stable than his rushing lines.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The five above are what we post for free. A subscriber gets every sheet, every week: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks, Line Shopping and the First TD sheet, which walks through who opens the scoring game by game rather than just who scores at some point. You also get projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking your own card off those projections, and the line-shopping feed that catches gaps like the betPARX one above while they are still live instead of after the market catches up. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
