Week 9 gives us a full Sunday plus a Monday nighter in Minnesota, and the five props below come straight off two PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers for the end zone looks and Prop Streaks for the yardage ones. Nothing here is a hunch. Each pick is a row that cleared the sheet's filters, and the receipts are printed under every one of them.
Read the bullets before the words. A hit rate over a stretch of games, a red zone carry share, a defensive rank against the position: those are the reasons the pick exists, and the sentences underneath are just me reading them out loud. Prices and books are listed as they were when this went out, so shop before you fire.
The picks for Week 9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Anytime TD (-110 at Fanatics)
- 2 GAME TD STREAK
- VS #31 WORST WR DEF
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.12 TDS/GAME L8G
- ARI @ SEA, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Arizona comes into Seattle ranked 31st against wide receivers on the sheet, which is about as soft a landing spot as the position gets this week. Smith-Njigba has found the end zone in each of the last two and carries a 75% TD hit rate over his last eight, so the volume is already pointed at the right part of the field. A coin-flip price on a receiver scoring that often against that defense is the whole case.
Khalil Shakir, Rec Yds Over 31.5 (-116 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 4 STRAIGHT
- 90% OVER L10
- 80% OVER L20G
- 90% HIT RATE VS 54% BREAK-EVEN AT -116
- BUF @ MIN, Mon 8:15pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Shakir has gone over this number in four straight and at a 90% clip across his last ten, which is the kind of consistency that comes from a fixed role rather than one big game skewing things. The line still sits at 31.5 on Monday night, and the price asks for a good deal less than his recent rate has delivered. That gap between what he does and what the book charges is why he is on the sheet.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Anytime TD (-375 at Fanatics)
- 88% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.38 TDS/GAME L8G
- 84% RZ CARRIES
- 3/8 MULTI-TD GAMES
- DET @ MIA, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
This is a heavy price and you should know what you are laying before you take it. The reason it is here is the red zone share: 84% of the carries inside the twenty, which is the single most predictive input on the TD Scorers sheet. Detroit on the road in Miami should see the goal line often enough, and three of his last eight were multi-TD games, so the floor on the usage is real even if the number is expensive.
James Cook, Rush Yds Over 73.5 (-116 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 6 STRAIGHT
- 70% OVER L10
- 75% OVER L20G
- 70% HIT RATE VS 54% BREAK-EVEN AT -116
- BUF @ MIN, Mon 8:15pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Cook has cleared this total in six straight, and the longer sample backs it up rather than contradicting it, which is what separates a streak worth betting from a hot fortnight. Buffalo in a Monday night game in Minnesota is the sort of script where the run game stays involved regardless of which way it breaks. The number has not moved up to meet the form yet.
Jonathan Taylor, Anytime TD (-125 at Bet365)
- 62% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.00 TDS/GAME L8G
- 68% RZ CARRIES
- 3/8 MULTI-TD GAMES
- DAL @ IND, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Taylor owns 68% of the Indianapolis red zone carries, which is the share you want behind a touchdown price in this range. He has scored in more than half his last eight games and three of those were multi-TD afternoons, so the ceiling is doing some of the work here too. Dallas visiting at one o'clock is a game where Indianapolis should be in scoring position plenty.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free column is five picks. A subscriber gets the whole board every week: all the cheat sheets, including the First TD sheet that lists who opens the scoring game by game, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking your own cards off the same data, and the line-shopping feed so you are not giving back the edge on the price. If you only ever use one of them, make it the shopping feed. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
