Week 8 is on the board, and these five picks come straight off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers for the backs near the goal line, Prop Streaks for the players whose numbers keep clearing the same line, and Line Shopping for the spots where one book is out of step with the rest.
The receipts are printed under each pick, so you can see the streak, the hit rate and the price gap that put the name on the list rather than taking our word for it. Season to date we are 32-31, +3.0u at a flat stake. Four of the five kick in the Sunday early window, so price them before that.
The picks for Week 8
Javonte Williams, Anytime TD (-250 at Onyx)
- 5 GAME TD STREAK
- 88% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.25 TDS/GAME L8G
- 74% RZ CARRIES
- ARI @ DAL, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
This is the shortest price on the page and the sheet explains why: Williams has found the end zone in five straight games and owns 74% of the Dallas red zone carries. When one back is handling that much of the short-yardage work, the touchdown prop stops being a lottery ticket and starts being a usage bet. The price leaves no room for a quiet afternoon, which is the trade you are making.
Jared Goff, Pass Yds Over 249.5 (-200 at BetMGM)
- OVER IN 5 STRAIGHT
- 80% OVER L10
- 75% OVER L20G
- 80% HIT RATE VS 67% BREAK-EVEN AT -200
- MIN @ DET, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Goff has gone over in five straight and the hit rate holds up over a longer sample, not just a hot month. The sheet flags an 80% hit rate against a 67% break-even at this number, which is the whole argument: the price is short, but it is not short enough for how often this line has cleared. A division game at home is the kind of script that keeps him throwing.
Sam Laporta, Rec Yds Over 49.5 (+110 at Bet365)
- +110 at Bet365 vs -136 consensus
- 10 pts of price better than the market across 7 books
- Next best: -130 at ESPN BET
- MIN @ DET, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Same line, seven books, and Bet365 is the only one paying plus money while the consensus sits at -136. The next best number is -130 at ESPN BET, so this is not a case of one book nudging a half point, it is a genuine outlier. If the price comes back to the field before kickoff, the reason to take it goes with it.
Kyren Williams, Anytime TD (-152 at Bet365)
- VS #30 WORST RB DEF
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 0.88 TDS/GAME L8G
- 52% RZ CARRIES
- LAC @ LAR, Sun 4:05pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
The Chargers rank 30th against the run, which is the softest end of the TD Scorers sheet, and Williams has scored in 75% of his last eight. He does not hold the goal line work as tightly as some of the names above, but the share is enough to keep him involved inside the five. The matchup is doing a lot of the work here, and the price reflects it.
Ashton Jeanty, Rec Yds Over 25.5 (-116 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 5 STRAIGHT
- 70% OVER L10
- 60% OVER L20G
- 70% HIT RATE VS 54% BREAK-EVEN AT -116
- LV @ NYJ, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Jeanty has cleared this number in five straight, and the receiving line for a back usually tracks game script more than talent. The sheet puts a 70% hit rate against a 54% break-even at -116, which is the kind of small, repeatable gap that pays over a season rather than a week. Low line, steady role, cheap price.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
Free picks are a slice of what the sheets produce each week. A subscriber gets every PropsEdge cheat sheet, including the First TD sheet that ranks who opens the scoring in each game, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking your own card off the same data, and the line-shopping feed that catches prices like the Bet365 number above before the rest of the market catches up. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
