Week 7 gives us five anytime touchdown props, all of them overs, and all of them pulled straight off the PropsEdge cheat sheets. Three came from the TD Scorers sheet, where the filter is scoring history and red zone workload. Two came from Line Shopping, where the filter is simpler: one book is paying more than everybody else for the same outcome. The receipts sit under each pick, so you can see exactly what the sheet saw.
The season ledger reads 32-30, +4.0u at a flat 1-unit stake. That is the honest version: a hair above even on count, a little ahead on money, because the long prices off Line Shopping pay for the short ones when they land. Four of these five kick off Sunday at 1:00pm ET, so the prices below are the ones posted now, not the ones you will find after the morning money arrives.
The picks for Week 7
Christian Mccaffrey, Anytime TD (-225 at BetMGM)
- 5 GAME TD STREAK
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.12 TDS/GAME L8G
- 63% RZ CARRIES
- SF @ ATL, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
McCaffrey has found the end zone in five straight and the TD Scorers sheet has him taking 63% of San Francisco's red zone carries, which is the part that travels from week to week. Against Atlanta that share matters more than the game script, because a goal line back with the ball in his hands most trips does not need a big day to cash this. The price is steep and you are paying for the certainty, so treat it as what it is: a short favorite with the workload to back it.
Jaleel Mclaughlin, Anytime TD (+250 at Bally Bet)
- +250 at Bally Bet vs +130 consensus
- 14.9 pts of price better than the market across 6 books
- Next best: +250 at betPARX
- CLE @ TEN, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
This one is a price play, nothing more complicated. Bally Bet has McLaughlin at +250 while the consensus across six books sits at +130, and betPARX is the only other shop anywhere near it. When the market is that split on the same outcome in the same game, the number you take decides whether the bet is worth making at all, and here the gap is doing the work rather than the matchup.
Derrick Henry, Anytime TD (-210 at BetMGM)
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.50 TDS/GAME L8G
- 72% RZ CARRIES
- 3/8 MULTI-TD GAMES
- CIN @ BAL, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Henry owns 72% of Baltimore's red zone carries over the sample on the TD Scorers sheet, and three of his last eight games featured more than one score, which tells you Baltimore is not getting cute inside the ten. Cincinnati is a divisional game where points usually come in volume rather than in field goals. The price reflects all of that, so the case is workload, not value.
Emanuel Wilson, Anytime TD (+160 at Bally Bet)
- +160 at Bally Bet vs +113 consensus
- 8.5 pts of price better than the market across 14 books
- Next best: +160 at betPARX
- KC @ SEA, Sun 8:20pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Line Shopping flagged Wilson because Bally Bet is at +160 while the consensus across fourteen books lands at +113, and fourteen books is a deep enough field that the outlier is a real outlier rather than a thin market. Sunday night in Seattle against Kansas City is a spot where touchdowns get spread around, and a secondary back only needs one short plunge. betPARX matches the number if your account is there instead.
Kenneth Walker, Anytime TD (-125 at Onyx)
- 3 GAME TD STREAK
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.50 TDS/GAME L8G
- 86% RZ CARRIES
- KC @ SEA, Sun 8:20pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Walker's 86% red zone carry share is the highest figure on this week's TD Scorers sheet, and he has scored in three straight on top of it. Onyx at -125 is a friendlier number than you would expect for a back with that kind of goal line monopoly in a primetime game. Short price, simple logic: the touches near the stripe belong to him.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free column is five picks; the sheets behind it are the whole board. A subscription gets you every PropsEdge cheat sheet each week, including the First TD sheet that calls who opens the scoring game by game, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking your own card off those numbers, and the line-shopping feed that found the two price gaps above before kickoff. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
