Week 3 is here, and the five plays below all came off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks, Line Shopping, Route Mismatches and Speed Mismatches. Nothing here is a hunch. The evidence lines that got each name flagged are printed right under the pick, so you can decide for yourself whether the case holds.
The season sits at 10-9, +0.9u, which is roughly what a flat-stake card looks like when the long prices land just often enough to cover the short ones. This week's slate leans on the Sunday afternoon windows, with two picks coming out of the same game in New Orleans from opposite directions.
The picks for Week 3
Cam Skattebo, Anytime TD (+118 at Bally Bet)
- 62% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 0.88 TDS/GAME L8G
- 46% RZ CARRIES
- 7 TDS L8G
- TEN @ NYG, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The TD Scorers sheet likes Skattebo for the simplest reason there is: when the Giants get close, he gets the ball. A 46% share of the red zone carries is the kind of workload number that survives a bad afternoon of game script, because the touches come in the exact spot where points happen. He has found the end zone in more than half his last eight games, and you are still getting plus money on it.
Juwan Johnson, Rec Yds Over 24.5 (-250 at BetMGM)
- OVER IN 13 STRAIGHT
- 100% OVER L10
- 90% OVER L19G
- 100% HIT RATE VS 71% BREAK-EVEN AT -250
- LV @ NO, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Over in 13 straight is the sort of line that makes you check the number twice, and the number is low enough that it only takes a couple of catches in the flat. The Prop Streaks sheet has him clearing this in every one of his last ten, against a break-even rate of 71% at this price. Be honest about what -250 means on a flat stake, though: one quiet afternoon costs you a full unit and several of these to get it back.
Michael Mayer, Anytime TD (+475 at Bally Bet)
- +475 at Bally Bet vs +300 consensus
- 7.6 pts of price better than the market across 11 books
- Next best: +475 at betPARX
- LV @ NO, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This one is purely a price play, and the Line Shopping sheet flagged it across 11 books. Consensus has Mayer at +300 and Bally Bet is sitting at +475, with betPARX matching. The touchdown is no more likely than the rest of the market thinks it is, but you are being paid meaningfully more for the same outcome, and that is the whole job.
Garrett Wilson, Rec Yds Over 49.5 (-193 at Caesars)
- 36% GO ROUTES — DET #32 VS ROUTE
- 27% COMEBACKS — DET #27 VS ROUTE
- 78% OVER L10
- 78% HIT RATE VS 66% BREAK-EVEN AT -193
- NYJ @ DET, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Route Mismatches cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The Route Mismatches sheet lined up Wilson's route tree against what Detroit has struggled with, and the overlap is ugly for the defense. He runs go routes on 36% of his snaps and Detroit ranks last in the league against that route, with the comeback route not far behind. He has gone over this number in most of his last ten, and the yardage line is modest enough that one deep connection covers it.
Jonathan Taylor, Rush Yds Over 69.5 (-161 at Bet365)
- 22.5 MPH TOP SPEED
- +2.5 MPH VS HOU COVERAGE
- 9.0 MPH/S BURST
- 70% OVER L10 (Rush Yds)
- HOU @ IND, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Speed Mismatches cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Speed Mismatches is the quietest sheet on the site and often the most useful. Taylor's top-end speed comes in +2.5 MPH above what Houston's coverage players have been running, which is the difference between a seven yard gain and one that breaks the game open. Pair that with a burst figure near the top of the position and a line that he has cleared in most of his recent games, and the price is defensible.
The free column is three or five picks. A subscription is the whole board: every cheat sheet refreshed each week, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking your own card out of the same inputs, and the line-shopping feed that surfaced the Mayer price before the market caught up. If you bet more than a couple of props a week, the feed alone changes what you are paying for the tickets you were going to take anyway. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.