Week 5 is the first week of the season where the sample on most of these players is big enough to argue with. The five picks below come straight off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers for the end zone plays, Prop Streaks for the players the market has not caught up to yet, and Line Shopping for the spot where the same bet is simply priced better at one book than the other seven.
Every receipt is printed under each pick, so you can see exactly what the sheet saw: hit rates, red zone shares, streaks, and the price gap where there is one. The season sits at 23-17, +5.9u at a flat stake, which is the kind of margin that comes from paying for a few plus-money hits rather than hammering short favourites. Prices and books are what the sheets had when this went out, so check before you fire.
The picks for Week 5
Derrick Henry, Anytime TD (-145 at FanDuel)
- 4 GAME TD STREAK
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.62 TDS/GAME L8G
- 66% RZ CARRIES
- BAL @ ATL, Sun 8:20pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
This is the cleanest usage profile on the board: Henry is taking 66% RZ CARRIES, so when Baltimore gets inside the ten the ball is going to him more often than not. The touchdown streak and the hit rate over his last eight back that up rather than contradict it, which is what you want from a short-priced TD play. Sunday night in Atlanta is a spot where Baltimore should be moving the ball enough to get those carries.
Jordan Love, Pass TDs Over 1.5 (+129 at Caesars)
- OVER IN 5 STRAIGHT
- 70% OVER L10
- 60% OVER L20G
- 70% HIT RATE VS 44% BREAK-EVEN AT +129
- CHI @ GB, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Love has gone over in five straight and the longer window agrees with the short one, which is the difference between a real streak and noise. The sheet flags the gap between his hit rate and what +129 needs to break even, and that gap is the entire reason this is on the list. A divisional game at home where Green Bay is likely throwing in the red zone keeps the path to two scores simple.
Quinshon Judkins, Rush Yds Over 59.5 (+110 at Bet365)
- +110 at Bet365 vs -114 consensus
- 5.7 pts of price better than the market across 8 books
- Next best: -103 at DraftKings
- CLE @ NYJ, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This one is a pricing play rather than a projection play. The same number is -114 at consensus across eight books, so you are getting paid plus money for a bet most of the market wants you to lay juice on. If Bet365 moves before you get there, the sheet lists the next best price and the edge shrinks fast, so this is a get-it-now line rather than a sit-on-it line.
Trey Mcbride, Anytime TD (+160 at Fanatics)
- VS #32 WORST TE DEF
- 50% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 48% RZ TARGETS
- 5 TDS L8G
- DET @ ARI, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Detroit comes in as the #32 TE DEF, which is as soft a matchup as the sheet can label. McBride already carries a red zone target share that puts him at the front of the queue inside the twenty for Arizona, and he has found the end zone repeatedly over his last eight. At plus money, you are getting paid for a script that only needs one throw to go right.
Zay Flowers, Rec Yds Over 59.5 (-116 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 4 STRAIGHT
- 70% OVER L10
- 75% OVER L20G
- 70% HIT RATE VS 54% BREAK-EVEN AT -116
- BAL @ ATL, Sun 8:20pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Flowers has cleared this number in four straight, and unlike most streaks on the sheet, his twenty-game rate is even stronger than his recent one. That tells you the line is lagging a volume role rather than chasing a couple of fluke games. Same Sunday night game as the Henry pick, and if Baltimore is throwing to keep pace, the targets are there.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free column is a slice of what the sheets put out every week. A subscriber gets all of them: the full TD Scorers, Prop Streaks and Line Shopping boards, plus the First TD sheet, which goes game by game on who is most likely to score the first touchdown rather than any touchdown. You also get projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking correlated legs without guessing, and the line-shopping feed that flags price gaps like the Judkins one the moment they open instead of the morning after. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
Cover photo: Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (source)
.jpg){kind=link}