Week 5 is here, and the board gave us a clean spread of pick types. These five came off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers for the red zone work, Prop Streaks for the guys the market has not caught up to yet, and Line Shopping for the two spots where one book is simply paying more than everyone else for the same bet.
The receipts are printed under every pick, same as always. Hit rates, streaks, consensus prices, the lot. Read them, disagree with them if you want, and shop your own number before you fire. The season record sits at 23-17, +5.9u.
The picks for Week 5
Omarion Hampton, Anytime TD (+170 at Bovada)
- 62% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 60% RZ CARRIES
- 5 TDS L8G
- 5 TDS IN L8G
- DEN @ LAC, Sun 4:05pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Hampton is taking 60% of the Chargers' red zone carries, which is the part of a touchdown prop you actually want to own. The scoring has followed the workload rather than coming from long runs, and five of them in the recent sample is a real base rate, not noise. Against Denver the yards may come slowly, which pushes more of the scoring inside the five, where Hampton is the call.
Tyler Shough, Pass Yds Over 235.5 (-120 at Fanatics)
- OVER IN 8 STRAIGHT
- 90% OVER L10
- 73% OVER L15G
- 90% HIT RATE VS 55% BREAK-EVEN AT -120
- MIN @ NO, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Shough has gone over in 8 straight, and the longer sample backs it up rather than contradicting it, so this is not a two-week hot run being sold as a trend. New Orleans has been throwing enough to clear a number this modest whether the game script is good or bad. At -120 the price is asking for a lot less than the recent rate has delivered.
Kyler Murray, INTs Thrown Over 0.5 (+140 at Bet365)
- +140 at Bet365 vs -100 consensus
- 8.3 pts of price better than the market across 6 books
- Next best: +113 at DraftKings
- MIN @ NO, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This one is a pure price play. Bet365 has it at +140 while the consensus across six books sits at -100, and even the next best number on the screen is well short of what you are getting here. Nothing about the interception market changed; one book just has a stale line, and the whole edge disappears if you bet it anywhere else.
Xavier Hutchinson, Rec Yds Over 15.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
- OVER IN 8 STRAIGHT
- 90% OVER L10
- 75% OVER L20G
- 90% HIT RATE VS 55% BREAK-EVEN AT -120
- HOU @ TEN, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Hutchinson has gone over in 8 straight, and stretched out to his last twenty games the rate barely budges, which tells you the role is stable rather than matchup-dependent. A number this low only needs a couple of catches or one decent gain to get there. Tennessee is not a spot where Houston should be abandoning the short passing game.
Colby Parkinson, Anytime TD (+280 at DraftKings)
- +280 at DraftKings vs +190 consensus
- 8.2 pts of price better than the market across 10 books
- Next best: +280 at Bovada
- BUF @ LAR, Mon 8:15pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
The market has Parkinson around +190 and DraftKings is up at +280 for the identical bet, with Bovada matching. Tight end touchdown prices move late once lineups firm up on a Monday night, so this is a number you take while it is sitting there. The bet itself is a coin flip on usage; the case is that you are being paid two separate tiers above where ten books have it.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free column is five picks. A subscriber gets every sheet, every week: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks, Line Shopping, and the First TD sheet that calls who scores first in each game, game by game. On top of that, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking your own card, and the line-shopping feed that flags gaps like the Murray and Parkinson prices the moment a book falls behind the market. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
