Week 4 is here, and the board below is five picks pulled straight off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks and Line Shopping. Nothing here is a hunch. Each pick carries the same evidence lines the sheets spit out, printed underneath so you can see exactly what the sheet saw before you decide whether you agree.
The season sits at 14-13, +3.5u. That is a thin margin over a lot of bets, which is roughly what an honest prop record looks like, and it is the reason the price matters as much as the player. Two of this week's five are early games and two kick at 4:25pm ET, so there is time to shop before anything locks.
The picks for Week 4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Anytime TD (-120 at ESPN BET)
- 3 GAME TD STREAK
- 62% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.00 TDS/GAME L8G
- 41% RZ TARGETS
- LAC @ SEA, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Smith-Njigba has found the end zone in three straight, and the reason is not luck: he is taking 41% of Seattle's red zone targets, which means when the Seahawks get close, the ball is looking for him first. Against the Chargers at home, the path to the score is the same one he has been walking all month. At -120 you are paying for a role rather than a guess.
Matthew Stafford, Pass Yds Over 250.5 (-110 at Fanatics)
- 90% OVER L10
- 75% OVER L20G
- 90% HIT RATE VS 52% BREAK-EVEN AT -110
- LAR @ PHI, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Stafford has gone over this number in 90% of his last ten, and the longer sample backs it up rather than contradicting it, which is what you want from a streak before you pay for it. A road trip to Philadelphia is the kind of script that keeps the Rams throwing late rather than sitting on a lead. The number has not moved to punish the trend yet, so the Prop Streaks sheet still shows daylight at -110.
Christian Mccaffrey, Anytime TD (-185 at Fanatics)
- -185 at Fanatics vs -270 consensus
- 8.1 pts of price better than the market across 8 books
- Next best: -200 at Bet365
- DEN @ SF, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
This one is a price play more than a projection play. The rest of the market has McCaffrey at -270 consensus to score against Denver, and Fanatics is sitting well underneath that, with the next best number still worse than what you can take here. Same player, same workload, same game, materially less juice, which is the entire point of the Line Shopping sheet.
Kyren Williams, Anytime TD (-105 at Fanatics)
- 62% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 0.75 TDS/GAME L8G
- 68% RZ CARRIES
- 6 TDS L8G
- LAR @ PHI, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Williams is handling 68% of the Rams' red zone carries, which is about as close to a designated goal line back as modern offenses get. He has scored in more than half of his recent games and the touchdown rate per game backs the role rather than resting on one fluke afternoon. Philadelphia is a tough front, but the short-yardage work is his either way, and -105 is close to a coin-flip price on a job description.
Jordan Love, Pass TDs Over 1.5 (+105 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 4 STRAIGHT
- 70% OVER L10
- 58% OVER L19G
- 70% HIT RATE VS 49% BREAK-EVEN AT +105
- GB @ TB, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Love has cleared this number in four straight, and the twenty-game sample says that is a lean rather than a blip. Tampa Bay is the kind of trip where Green Bay is likely to need scores through the air rather than grinding clock. Getting plus money on a trend running at 70% over his last ten is the sort of gap the Prop Streaks sheet exists to find.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free column is a slice. A subscription gets you the full sheets every week, including the First TD sheet that lays out who is likely to score first, game by game, rather than just at any point. You also get projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking your own card off those projections, and the line-shopping feed that flags gaps like the one on this week's McCaffrey number before they close. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
