Week 10 is posted. Five props, pulled off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks, Line Shopping, Route Mismatches and Speed Mismatches. Two touchdown prices, two receiving yardage overs and one rushing total, spread across the Sunday card from the early kick through the night game.
The receipts are printed under each pick, the same lines the sheets spit out: hit rates, route shares, defensive ranks and the price gap between books. Read them before you read my take on them. If a number does not move you, skip the pick.
The picks for Week 10
Jahmyr Gibbs, Anytime TD (-250 at ESPN BET)
- 2 GAME TD STREAK
- 88% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.38 TDS/GAME L8G
- 88% RZ CARRIES
- NE @ DET, Sun 9:30am ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
This is the chalk of the column and it is priced that way. The reason the sheet keeps flagging him is the goal line work: 88% of the red zone carries belong to him, which is about as close to a guaranteed look inside the five as a backfield gets. New England at Detroit in the 9:30am ET window is not a spot where you need the touchdown to come from distance, and the recent scoring rate backs the share up rather than contradicting it.
Michael Mayer, Rec Yds Over 19.5 (-118 at betPARX)
- OVER IN 4 STRAIGHT
- 90% OVER L10
- 65% OVER L20G
- 89% OVER LAST SEASON
- SEA @ LV, Sun 4:05pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Mayer has gone over this kind of number in 90% of his last 10, and the L20 and last-season lines say it is not a four-week mirage. A 19.5 receiving yards line for a tight end who is getting targeted every week is the sort of number that only needs a couple of catches, not a highlight. Seattle at Las Vegas, late window, and the price at betPARX is the cheapest way to take the streak seriously.
Josh Cameron, Anytime TD (+500 at Bally Bet)
- +500 at Bally Bet vs +275 consensus
- 10 pts of price better than the market across 15 books
- Next best: +500 at betPARX
- JAX @ TEN, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Worth repeating where the edge lives: it is in the number on the ticket, not in a new read on the offense. Take it at the shopped price or leave it alone.
Jaylen Warren, Rec Yds Over 23.5 (-114 at BetOnline.ag)
- 52% FLATS — CIN #32 VS ROUTE
- 28% OUTS — CIN #28 VS ROUTE
- 80% OVER L10
- 80% HIT RATE VS 53% BREAK-EVEN AT -114
- PIT @ CIN, Sun 8:20pm ET
Source: Route Mismatches cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The Route Mismatches sheet has Cincinnati ranked 32nd against the route Warren runs more than half the time, which is the whole case in one line: the thing he does most is the thing they handle worst. Flats and outs are volume routes, not boom routes, so this is a floor bet rather than a gamble on one broken tackle. Sunday night in Cincinnati, and the hit rate sits comfortably above what -114 asks for.
Kenneth Walker III, Rush Yds Over 86.5 (-114 at betPARX)
- 21.3 MPH TOP SPEED
- +2.0 MPH VS ATL COVERAGE
- 8.7 MPH/S BURST
- 60% OVER L10 (Rush Yds)
- KC @ ATL, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Speed Mismatches cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Speed Mismatches has him at a 2.0 mph edge over what Atlanta's coverage runs, which is the kind of gap that turns a nine yard run into a thirty yard one a couple of times a game. That matters at 86.5, a number you usually clear with one chunk play on top of ordinary carries. The over rate over his last 10 is the softest evidence in this column, so size it accordingly.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
Free picks are a slice of the week. A subscription opens the full sheets every week, including the First TD sheet, which lays out who scores first, game by game, instead of just who scores at all. You also get projections for every game, the pick builder for stacking props into something you actually want to bet, and the line-shopping feed that found the Cameron price above. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
