Wed Oct 28 gives us a full midweek board, and the five props below came off three PropsEdge cheat sheets: Prop Streaks for the guys whose numbers keep clearing, Soft Spots for the matchups where a defense has been giving the position away, and Line Shopping for the spots where one book is paying well above everyone else. All five are overs. The receipts, hit rates, streaks, opponent ranks and price gaps, are printed under each pick so you can see exactly what the sheet saw.
Last issue graded out at 3-2, +1.2u, which also stands as the running record. Two near misses cost full units and the three winners covered them. One housekeeping note that matters more in October than any other month: the hit counts below cover each player's last games, regular season and playoffs, so a lot of them are carried over rather than fresh form. Check the injury report before tip-off, because minutes decide these.
Last issue's picks
| Pick | Line | Result | Actual | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard Rebounds + Assists (-109 at Courtside) | Over 9.5 | LOSS | 8 vs 9.5 | -1.0u |
| Jabari Smith Jr Points + Rebounds (+112 at Bally Bet) | Over 19.5 | WIN | 35 vs 19.5 | +1.1u |
| Desmond Bane Steals (+112 at Bally Bet) | Over 1.5 | WIN | 3 vs 1.5 | +1.1u |
| Ace Bailey Points (-104 at Courtside) | Over 11.5 | WIN | 12 vs 11.5 | +1.0u |
| DeAnthony Melton Assists (-103 at Courtside) | Over 2.5 | LOSS | 2 vs 2.5 | -1.0u |
Last issue: +1.2u at flat 1-unit stakes. Record since the first issue: 3-2, +1.2u.
Last issue went 3-2 for +1.2u across five graded picks, none left ungraded. Jabari Smith Jr blew past 19.5 points plus rebounds with 35, Desmond Bane got to 3 steals against a 1.5 line, and Ace Bailey scraped over 11.5 points with 12. The two losses were tight and expensive in the way all losses are: Kawhi Leonard finished at 8 on a 9.5 rebounds plus assists line, and DeAnthony Melton came up short of 2.5 assists with 2. Both were priced near pick-em, so they cost a full unit each regardless of how close they landed.
The edge that held up was the one with room in the number rather than the one with the prettiest price. Smith Jr and Bane cleared by a distance, while the two losses were both markets where a single possession decided it at a near pick-em price. That is the argument for the kind of board below: soft-spot matchups and streaks where the line sits under what the player has actually been doing, instead of coin flips priced like coin flips.
Tonight's NBA picks
Draymond Green, Assists Over 5.5 (-127 at Onyx)
- OVER IN 8 STRAIGHT
- 9 OF LAST 10 OVER 5.5
- 14 OF LAST 20 OVER 5.5
- 90% HIT RATE VS 56% BREAK-EVEN AT -127
- GSW @ MIN, Wed 8:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This is the cleanest streak on the sheet: Green has gone over in 8 straight and the hit rate over his last ten sits far above what -127 asks for. He is the passing hub whenever he is on the floor, so the assists come from offense design rather than from one hot shooting night. Golden State at Minnesota is a game where the ball moves, and the number has not moved with him.
Kyle Kuzma, Assists Over 2.5 (-150 at ESPN BET)
- HOU RANK 30TH OF 30 VS POWER FORWARDS IN ASSISTS (LAST 10 GAMES)
- OVER IN 8 STRAIGHT
- 8 OF LAST 10 OVER 2.5
- 80% HIT RATE VS 60% BREAK-EVEN AT -150
- HOU @ MIL, Wed 8:00pm ET
Source: Soft Spots cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Houston ranks 30th of 30 against power forwards in assists over their last ten games, which is the softest spot available at the position. Kuzma has cleared this number in 8 straight anyway, so the matchup is a bonus on top of a trend that was already there. The price is the steepest on the card and the bar is a low one, which is usually how these go.
Jalen Smith, Threes Over 1.5 (+100 at Fanatics)
- NYK RANK 28TH OF 30 VS CENTERS IN THREES (LAST 10 GAMES)
- OVER IN 3 STRAIGHT
- 7 OF LAST 10 OVER 1.5
- 70% HIT RATE VS 50% BREAK-EVEN AT +100
- NYK @ CHI, Wed 8:00pm ET
Source: Soft Spots cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
New York ranks 28th of 30 against centers in threes over their last ten games, and Smith is the kind of big who lives behind the line when a defense ignores him there. He has gone over in 7 of his last 10, which is comfortably clear of what even money requires. Threes props carry variance by nature, so the plus side of the price is doing real work here.
Gui Santos, Assists Over 2.5 (+135 at Bet365)
- +135 at Bet365 vs -123 consensus
- 12.6 pts of price better than the market across 9 books
- Next best: -110 at FanDuel
- 5 OF LAST 10 OVER 2.5
- GSW @ MIN, Wed 8:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The trend here is ordinary and the price is not: Bet365 has this at +135 while the consensus across nine books sits at -123. The next best number anywhere is -110 at FanDuel, so the gap is not a rounding issue, it is one book out on its own. If you have the account, this is the version of the bet worth making; at the consensus number it is a pass.
LeBron James, Assists Over 6.5 (+155 at Bet365)
- +155 at Bet365 vs -103 consensus
- 11.5 pts of price better than the market across 18 books
- Next best: +110 at BetMGM
- 5 OF LAST 10 OVER 6.5
- PHI @ IND, Wed 7:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Eighteen books are priced on this and the consensus is -103, with Bet365 sitting at +155. The underlying rate is a coin flip over his last ten games, which is precisely why the price matters more than the trend. Early tip at 7:00pm ET in Indiana, and prices this far off the market rarely stay that way all afternoon.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NBA player props guide
- NBA first basket strategy
- How to win on PrizePicks
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free picks are a slice of the board. A subscriber gets every NBA cheat sheet each day: Prop Streaks, Line Shopping, Line Gaps, Defense vs Position, Soft Spots, Demons & Goblins and First Basket. You also get the projections board with every book's price side by side, so the kind of gap Bet365 is showing tonight is visible the moment it appears, plus player pages with the full game logs behind every trend on this page. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
Cover photo: U.S. Department of Defense, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (source)
