Wed Nov 4 brings a full evening board, and the five props below come straight off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: Prop Streaks for the guys whose numbers keep clearing the same line, Soft Spots for the matchups where an opponent has been giving the position away, and Line Shopping for the spots where one book is out of step with the rest. The receipts are printed under each pick, so you can see the hit counts and the price gap rather than take my word for it.
Last issue came in at +2.3u. LeBron James, Jalen Smith and Draymond Green all cleared their numbers, Kyle Kuzma's assists came up short at a short price, and the Gui Santos ticket is still ungraded with no box score found. That puts the season at 6-3, +3.5u. One housekeeping note that never changes in this sport: check the injury report before tip-off, because minutes decide most of these.
Last issue's picks
| Pick | Line | Result | Actual | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James Assists (+155 at Bet365) | Over 6.5 | WIN | 10 vs 6.5 | +1.6u |
| Kyle Kuzma Assists (-150 at ESPN BET) | Over 2.5 | LOSS | 1 vs 2.5 | -1.0u |
| Jalen Smith Threes (+100 at Fanatics) | Over 1.5 | WIN | 3 vs 1.5 | +1.0u |
| Draymond Green Assists (-127 at Onyx) | Over 5.5 | WIN | 6 vs 5.5 | +0.8u |
| Gui Santos Assists (+135 at Bet365) | Over 2.5 | UNGRADED | no box score found | — |
Last issue: +2.3u at flat 1-unit stakes. Record since the first issue: 6-3, +3.5u.
Last issue returned +2.3u. LeBron James sailed past his assists number at +155, the biggest single contributor of the night. Jalen Smith's threes cleared at an even price and Draymond Green got there by the smallest margin possible at -127. Kyle Kuzma's assists over was the one that missed, and at -150 it cost a full unit. The Gui Santos assists ticket at +135 remains ungraded, with no box score found, so it is not in the season tally either way.
The pattern worth noting is where the money came from. The two plus-priced tickets did the lifting, while the short favourite was the only loser and took the most off the top. Short prices on assists props need a hit rate well above the streak counts we normally publish to be worth the risk, which is why tonight's board leans toward even and plus numbers and one spot where a single book is badly out of line with the rest.
Tonight's NBA picks
Davion Mitchell, Points + Assists Over 19.5 (+115 at BetMGM)
- OVER IN 7 STRAIGHT
- 8 OF LAST 10 OVER 19.5
- 12 OF LAST 20 OVER 19.5
- 80% HIT RATE VS 47% BREAK-EVEN AT +115
- MIA @ LAC, Wed 10:30pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Mitchell has cleared this combined number in 8 of his last 10 games, and the streak is still intact going into Miami's trip to the Clippers. What makes it interesting is the price: a plus number on a line he has been beating more often than not. Line shopping matters less here than the simple fact that the market has not yet moved this one into negative territory.
Zion Williamson, Steals Over 1.5 (+115 at Hard Rock Bet)
- UTA RANK 29TH OF 30 VS POWER FORWARDS IN STEALS (LAST 10 GAMES)
- 6 OF LAST 10 OVER 1.5
- 8 OF LAST 20 OVER 1.5
- 60% HIT RATE VS 47% BREAK-EVEN AT +115
- UTA @ NOP, Wed 8:00pm ET
Source: Soft Spots cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Utah ranks 29th of 30 against power forwards in steals over their last 10 games, which is about as soft as the sheet gets before you hit the bottom. Williamson has cleared this number in more than half his recent games, so this is a modest hit rate paired with a matchup that has been handing the category out. At +115 you are getting paid for a number that only needs two takeaways.
Kris Dunn, Steals Over 1.5 (-105 at Bet365)
- -105 at Bet365 vs -160 consensus
- 10.3 pts of price better than the market across 7 books
- Next best: -158 at FanDuel
- 6 OF LAST 10 OVER 1.5
- MIA @ LAC, Wed 10:30pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This one is a pricing story first. Bet365 has it at -105 while the consensus across seven books sits at -160, and the next best number is -158 at FanDuel, so everyone else is charging substantially more for the same ticket. Dunn has gone over this line in 6 of his last 10 games, which is the kind of rate that plays very differently at -105 than at -160.
Tyrese Maxey, Points + Assists Over 28.5 (-103 at Bally Bet)
- OVER IN 8 STRAIGHT
- 8 OF LAST 10 OVER 28.5
- 15 OF LAST 20 OVER 28.5
- 80% HIT RATE VS 51% BREAK-EVEN AT -103
- PHI @ DET, Wed 7:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Maxey has gone over this combined line in 8 straight games and in 15 of his last 20, which is the longest run on tonight's sheet. The price is essentially flat, so you are not paying a premium for a streak that deep. The 7:00pm ET tip means this is one of the first to come off the board if the number moves.
Toumani Camara, Threes Over 2.5 (+100 at Fanatics)
- PHX RANK 29TH OF 30 VS SMALL FORWARDS IN THREES (LAST 10 GAMES)
- OVER IN 6 STRAIGHT
- 6 OF LAST 10 OVER 2.5
- 60% HIT RATE VS 50% BREAK-EVEN AT +100
- POR @ PHX, Wed 9:00pm ET
Source: Soft Spots cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Phoenix rank 29th of 30 against small forwards in threes over their last 10 games, and Camara has gone over this number in six straight. Three-point props are noisy by nature, which is why the even price matters more than usual here. Take the matchup rank as the reason, the streak as supporting evidence, and nothing more.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NBA player props guide
- NBA first basket strategy
- How to win on PrizePicks
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free column is a slice of the board. A subscriber gets every NBA cheat sheet each night: Prop Streaks, Line Shopping, Line Gaps, Defense vs Position, Soft Spots, Demons and Goblins, and First Basket. You also get the projections board with every book's price side by side, so the gaps like the Dunn one show up before anyone tweets them, plus player pages with the full game logs behind each line. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
