A threes-made line is one of the most popular props in the NBA, and one of the easiest to misread. It looks like a bet on whether a shooter is hot. It is mostly a bet on how many threes he will take. Made threes are attempts times the share that go in, and the attempts are the part you can forecast. The percentage swings so much from game to game that a hot week tells you very little. This guide is part of our Sport Guides series. The NBA player props guide covers minutes, usage and pace for every stat.
Start with attempts
At the same 36% from three, a shooter expected to take 5 threes goes over 2.5 about 27% of the time, and one expected to take 10 about 70% of the time. The -110 break-even, 52.4%, sits between 7 and 8 attempts. So the first question is always how many he will take:
- Minutes. Every attempt needs time on the floor. Check for a minutes restriction, foul trouble patterns, and how big the spread is. A blowout can take a starter out of the fourth quarter.
- Role. A spot-up shooter's attempts depend on who is creating for him. When the team's main ball-handler sits, his catch-and-shoot chances can fall; when a high-volume shooter is out, the others usually take more.
- Pace and the total. More possessions mean more shots of every kind. A high total and two fast teams add attempts on both sides.
- The defense's shape. Some defenses protect the paint and give up threes; others chase shooters off the line. A defense that concedes a lot of attempts helps the over even if it is not giving up a high percentage.
The percentage is mostly noise
A three-point percentage needs hundreds of shots before it means much. A real 36% shooter can shoot anywhere from 15% to 57% over 20 attempts, about three games for a volume shooter, by luck alone. After 100 attempts the range is still 27% to 45%. So when a shooter has made 50% of his threes over the last week, the better bet is that he is still roughly the shooter he has been for the last season or two, not a new one.
That cuts both ways. A cold stretch drives his line down and can make the over the value, as long as his attempts are steady. Attempts settle much faster than percentage: if a player's role has really changed, his attempts show it within a few games. Trust a change in attempts; be slow to trust a change in percentage.
Low counts and the ladder
Made threes are small numbers, so every half-point matters. For a shooter expected to take 8 threes at 37%, an average of 2.96 made, he finishes on exactly 2 about 23% of the time and exactly 3 about 22% of the time, and he goes scoreless from three about 5% of the time. Moving the line from 2.5 to 3.5 takes him from a favorite to a clear underdog.
Books post threes as a ladder: 1+, 2+, 3+ and up, each with its own price. Price every rung from one projection. For this shooter, 3+ is fair at -131, 4+ at +191 and 5+ at +462. If a book offers 4+ at +240, that is an edge on this projection; if it offers 3+ at -150, it is not. The odds converter turns any price into its implied chance, and the EV calculator shows what the gap is worth. Ladder rungs carry their own margins, and the long ones are often priced worst, so check each price instead of assuming.
The same projection tells you where pick'em lines stand. On pick'em apps a pick on a two-pick PrizePicks Power play needs to hit about 57.7% of the time to break even, more than a -110 bet's 52.4%. On this example, the over 2.5 at 57% is right on that line: no edge at all on a pick'em app, but a real one at a sportsbook at -110.
How the stat is counted
- Only made three-pointers count. A made three on a last-second heave counts the same as any other. Free throws and two-point shots don't, however he scores them.
- Overtime usually counts. Most books count overtime for player props, which can rescue an over in a close game. Check your book's rules.
- He has to play. If he is ruled out before the game, the bet is usually voided. If he starts and leaves hurt, rules vary by book, so check yours before betting a player listed as questionable.
The matchup, on the sheet
The free NBA Defense vs Position sheet shows what each defense allows to each position, by stat and window. With threes made selected for today's games, Boston has allowed 4.7 threes a game to power forwards, the most in the league, while Washington has allowed only 1.9 a game to point guards. A number like that is a reason to nudge your attempts or your percentage, not a bet on its own. It mixes how many threes a defense allows with how many went in, and the second part is exactly the noise from the chart above. The defense vs position guide explains how far to trust it.
- Shop the line. Books often disagree on a shooter's line and the price of each rung. The free NBA Line Shopping sheet flags props where one book is paying meaningfully more than the rest, and the devig calculator strips the margin from a two-sided price.
- Shortlists. The free NBA Soft Spots sheet lines posted props up against the softest defenses for that position and stat, and NBA Prop Streaks shows who has cleared his current line most often lately. Treat a streak in threes with extra suspicion: it is the stat where luck hides best.
The routine
- Attempts first, from minutes, role, who else is playing, pace and the total.
- A percentage you can defend, built on a season or more of shots, not the last week.
- Projection to probability for every rung of the ladder, not just the main line.
- Price, shopped across books and checked rung by rung.
- Stake flat. Even a good threes bet loses often: in the example above, 3+ misses about 43% of the time. The bankroll guide covers sizing, and the variance guide explains why.
Doing it in PropsEdge
The projections board shows every shooter's threes line with our projection, the line movement and the best price across sportsbooks, and the free NBA cheat sheets above cover the matchup, the streaks and the price. A PropsEdge membership unlocks every row of every sheet.
Threes are the most random stat on the board, which is what makes them fun and what makes them dangerous. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop. Help is free and confidential at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cover photo: Kirk Hinrich's three-point attempt, Chicago Bulls vs Indiana Pacers at the United Center. Brent D. Payne, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and color graded.
