Wednesday, November 11 gives us a full board, and the five overs below come off three PropsEdge cheat sheets: Prop Streaks for the players who keep clearing the same number, Soft Spots for the matchups where a defense is giving up that stat to that position, and Line Shopping for the spots where one book is out of step with the rest.
Every pick carries its receipts underneath: the hit counts over the player's last games, the opponent rank where there is one, and the price we logged. Those hit counts include last season's games where the sample reaches back that far, so read them as a player's baseline rather than proof of current form. Check the injury report before tip-off, because none of this survives a late scratch.
Tonight's NBA picks
Trey Murphy, Assists Over 2.5 (-148 at Pinnacle)
- OVER IN 8 STRAIGHT
- 9 OF LAST 10 OVER 2.5
- 15 OF LAST 20 OVER 2.5
- 90% HIT RATE VS 60% BREAK-EVEN AT -148
- BKN @ NOP, Wed 8:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Murphy has gone over in 8 straight, and the longer looks back it up rather than thinning out. Brooklyn visiting New Orleans is the kind of game where a wing who touches the ball on every possession picks up easy hockey assists. This is the shortest price on the card and it still sits under the hit rate on the sheet.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Threes Over 1.5 (+110 at Bally Bet)
- CLE RANK 29TH OF 30 VS CENTERS IN THREES (LAST 10 GAMES)
- OVER IN 3 STRAIGHT
- 7 OF LAST 10 OVER 1.5
- 70% HIT RATE VS 48% BREAK-EVEN AT +110
- CLE @ NYK, Wed 7:00pm ET
Source: Soft Spots cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Cleveland ranks 29th of 30 against centers in threes over their last 10 games, which is exactly the profile Towns is built to punish. He has cleared this number in most of his last 10 as well, so the matchup is not doing all the work here. Plus money on a two-three night from a center who shoots like a wing is the whole reason the Soft Spots sheet exists.
Josh Hart, Steals Over 1.5 (+162 at FanDuel)
- +162 at FanDuel vs -111 consensus
- 14.4 pts of price better than the market across 8 books
- Next best: +125 at ESPN BET
- 5 OF LAST 10 OVER 1.5
- CLE @ NYK, Wed 7:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The market has this number at -111 across eight books and FanDuel is alone out at the price in the heading. Hart's own record at this line is a coin flip over his last 10, which is fine when you are being paid like an underdog and the rest of the market is not. Next best is well short of it, so this one is only worth taking at the one book.
Kyshawn George, Assists Over 4.5 (+125 at Bet365)
- IND RANK 29TH OF 30 VS SHOOTING GUARDS IN ASSISTS (LAST 10 GAMES)
- 6 OF LAST 10 OVER 4.5
- 6 OF LAST 20 OVER 4.5
- 60% HIT RATE VS 44% BREAK-EVEN AT +125
- WAS @ IND, Wed 7:00pm ET
Source: Soft Spots cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Indiana ranks 29th of 30 against shooting guards in assists over their last 10 games, and Washington runs enough offense through George for that to matter. Be honest about the sample: the 20-game look is a lot colder than the 10-game look, so this is a matchup play more than a form play. At plus money against that rank, it clears the bar anyway.
Paul George, Steals Over 1.5 (+100 at BetOnline.ag)
- TOR RANK 29TH OF 30 VS POWER FORWARDS IN STEALS (LAST 10 GAMES)
- 7 OF LAST 10 OVER 1.5
- 13 OF LAST 20 OVER 1.5
- 70% HIT RATE VS 50% BREAK-EVEN AT +100
- BOS @ TOR, Wed 7:00pm ET
Source: Soft Spots cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Toronto ranks 29th of 30 against power forwards in steals over their last 10 games, which is the softest kind of spot for a help defender with long arms. George has cleared this number in most of his last 10 and in a clear majority of his last 20, so the shorter and longer samples agree for once. Even money on a stat that lives and dies on one deflection is a fair trade.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NBA player props guide
- NBA first basket strategy
- How to win on PrizePicks
- Line shopping and closing line value
Free tools to check any price yourself:
The free card is five picks. A subscriber gets every NBA cheat sheet, every day: Prop Streaks, Line Shopping, Line Gaps, Defense vs Position, Soft Spots, Demons and Goblins, and First Basket. On top of that, the projections board shows every book's price on every market side by side, and the player pages let you pull a full game log before you fire. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
