A quarterback's passing yards line looks like a bet on how good he is. Mostly it is a bet on how many times he will throw. Passing yards are attempts times yards per attempt, and of the two, attempts move more from week to week and are easier to forecast, because the betting market has already told you most of what you need: who is expected to lead, by how much, and for how long. This guide is part of our Sport Guides series. The NFL player props guide covers the general method, and the receiving yards guide covers the other end of the same throws.
Start with attempts
Every pass attempt is another chance for yards, so the first number to estimate is how many times he will drop back and throw.
With the same 7.0 yards an attempt, a quarterback expected to throw 28 times clears 245.5 about 23% of the time, and one expected to throw 40 times about 68% of the time. That swing is bigger than almost any matchup. Three things drive attempts:
- Game script. Teams that trail throw to catch up; teams that lead run to burn clock. The spread tells you who is expected to be chasing. An underdog's quarterback often throws more than his season average, and a big favorite's quarterback often throws less, especially in the second half.
- The team's own pass rate. Some offenses throw on early downs whatever the score; others lean on the run until they can't. Compare his recent attempts with the score of those games before you treat a high number as his normal.
- Pace and plays. A no-huddle offense and a defense that gets off the field quickly both add plays. A slow, ball-control opponent takes possessions away from both quarterbacks.
The total matters too. A high total means both offenses are expected to score, which usually means more plays and more throws on both sides. The team totals that the spread and total imply are the quickest check: favorite = (total + spread) ÷ 2, underdog = (total − spread) ÷ 2.
Then yards per attempt
Once you have attempts, adjust how far each one goes.
- The pass defense. Use passing yards allowed to quarterbacks over a long enough window, and remember who those quarterbacks were. A defense that faced three backups looks better than it is.
- Pressure. A quarterback under constant pressure throws short and throws away, which cuts yards per attempt. A sack also ends the play before a pass is thrown, so it costs an attempt.
- His receivers. A missing top receiver lowers yards per attempt more than most matchups do, and a returning one raises it. Check the injury report all the way to Sunday.
- Weather. Strong wind is the weather to watch: it hurts deep passing and kicking. Cold and light rain matter much less. Domes remove the question entirely.
How the stat is counted
Two details decide more passing props than they should.
- Sacks don't come off his yards. In official NFL statistics a quarterback's passing yards are gross: a sack for a 9-yard loss is subtracted from his team's net passing yards, not from his own total. A quarterback who throws for 270 and takes four sacks still has 270 for your prop. Sacks still hurt the over, because they end drives and cost attempts.
- Leaving early. If a quarterback is benched in a blowout or leaves injured, the over usually loses. Books have their own rules for players who start but don't finish, so check yours. Late-game blowouts are the common case: a big favorite's starter may sit the last quarter, and an underdog's may keep throwing for yards that don't change the result.
Price every alternate line from one projection
Once you have a projection, you can price any line, not just the main one. Books post alternate lines from well below to well above the main number, and the fair price of each one follows from the same projection.
For a quarterback projected at 238 yards, over 199.5 should hit about 71% of the time, a fair price of -245, and over 299.5 about 19%, a fair price of +431. Compare the book's price at each rung with the fair one. Alternate lines carry their own margins, and they are not always the same as the main line's, so an alt over at +500 that your projection makes +431 is a real edge, while the same projection makes the main over at -110 a pass. The odds converter turns any price into its implied chance, and the EV calculator shows what the gap is worth.
Two cautions. The chart assumes a single, well-behaved projection; real passing yards can have a longer tail on the high side, so the highest rungs deserve a little more respect than a normal model gives them. And every alt line is the same bet as the main line in a different size, so don't stack several rungs of one quarterback and call it diversified.
Find the price the market is moving to
Passing lines move on news: a receiver ruled out, a quarterback limited in practice, a wind forecast. Getting the number before the move is often worth more than any matchup edge.
- Shop. Books often post different passing lines, and different prices on the same line. The free NFL Line Shopping cheat sheet flags props where one book is paying meaningfully more than the rest.
- Watch the move. The free NFL Steam Moves cheat sheet tracks the biggest moves from open to now, so you can see which books haven't caught up.
- Devig the two sides when a book posts both, with the devig calculator, before you compare its price with your projection.
On pick'em apps there is no price on each pick, only the payout of the whole slip. A pick on a two-pick PrizePicks Power play needs to hit about 57.7% of the time to break even, more than a -110 bet's 52.4%, so a passing line has to be well off your projection to be worth playing there.
The matchup, on the sheet
The free NFL Defense vs Position sheet shows what each defense has allowed to quarterbacks, by stat and window. This week, over the last 5 games, Jacksonville has allowed 268 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, against a league average of 236 for the same window: about 13% more. That is a reason to nudge yards per attempt up, not a reason to bet the over on its own. Five games is a small sample, so shrink the gap toward average, check which quarterbacks Jacksonville faced, and remember that a defense whose own team builds leads faces more passes, because trailing opponents throw to catch up. The defense vs position guide explains how far to trust numbers like these; the method is the same in every sport.
The free NFL Soft Spots cheat sheet lines posted props up against the softest defenses for that position and stat, and Prop Streaks shows how often each player has cleared his current line lately. Both are shortlists, not bets.
The routine
- Attempts first, from the spread, the total, his team's pass rate and the pace of both offenses.
- Yards per attempt, adjusted for the pass defense over a fair window, pressure, his receivers and wind.
- Projection to probability at the main line and every alternate line.
- Price, shopped across books, devigged where both sides are posted, and checked against line moves.
- Stake flat. In the example above, a normal game lands about 70 yards either side of the projection. The bankroll guide covers sizing, and the variance guide explains why good bets still lose often.
Doing it in PropsEdge
The projections board shows every quarterback's passing line with our projection, the line movement and the best price across sportsbooks, and the free NFL cheat sheets above cover the matchup, the streaks and the price. A PropsEdge membership unlocks every row of every sheet.
A passing yards line is a forecast of a whole game, not just a quarterback. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop. Help is free and confidential at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cover photo: Lamar Jackson passing against Tennessee, January 2020. Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and color graded.
