Last week finished 3-2, +3.7u, and almost all of that came from one ticket. Michael Mayer got in the end zone at +475 and paid for everything around him. Jonathan Taylor did not: 68 rushing yards against a 69.5 line, which is the kind of loss you file away rather than argue with. Cam Skattebo never found the goal line, and that was the other one that missed.
That puts the season at 14-13, +3.5u, a record that is barely above water carrying a profit, which is what happens when the long prices land and the short ones do not sink you. Week 4 brings three more, pulled from the PropsEdge TD Scorers, Prop Streaks and Line Shopping sheets. The receipts for each one are printed right under the pick, so you can read the same evidence the sheets flagged instead of taking my word for it.
Last issue's picks
| Pick | Line | Result | Actual | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson Rec Yds (-193 at Caesars) | Over 49.5 | WIN | 107 vs 49.5 | +0.5u |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush Yds (-161 at Bet365) | Over 69.5 | LOSS | 68 vs 69.5 | -1.0u |
| Cam Skattebo Anytime TD (+118 at Bally Bet) | Anytime TD | LOSS | 0 vs 0.5 | -1.0u |
| Juwan Johnson Rec Yds (-250 at BetMGM) | Over 24.5 | WIN | 53 vs 24.5 | +0.4u |
| Michael Mayer Anytime TD (+475 at Bally Bet) | Anytime TD | WIN | 1 vs 0.5 | +4.8u |
Last issue: +3.7u at flat 1-unit stakes. Record since the first issue: 14-13, +3.5u.
Five picks, all five graded, no leftovers. Garrett Wilson blew through his receiving line with 107 yards and Juwan Johnson more than doubled his, but both were short favourites and neither returned much for the risk. Michael Mayer at +475 was the week. On the other side, Jonathan Taylor finished 68 against a 69.5 line, a loss by a yard and a half that costs exactly as much as a loss by thirty, and Cam Skattebo was shut out of the end zone at +118.
The week is a clean illustration of why we publish units next to the count. Wilson at -193 and Johnson at -250 both cashed and together they did not come close to covering the two losers; the +475 tight end did all the lifting by himself. Short-priced favourites off strong recent form are fine tickets, but they only pay when you are right almost every time, and the touchdown props at real prices are where a 3-2 week turns into a profitable one.
This week's picks
Josh Allen, Anytime TD (-115 at Fanatics)
- 3 GAME TD STREAK
- 62% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.25 TDS/GAME L8G
- 42% RZ CARRIES
- NE @ BUF, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
Allen has found the end zone himself in three straight, and the TD Scorers sheet likes why: he is taking 42% of Buffalo's red zone carries, which is a running back's workload attached to a quarterback's line. New England has to account for him as a runner inside the ten, and that is the part of this that does not depend on the passing game cooperating. The price is short for a touchdown prop, but the usage behind it is the least speculative part of the slate.
Justin Herbert, Pass TDs Over 0.5 (-250 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 3 STRAIGHT
- 80% OVER L10
- 90% OVER L20G
- 80% HIT RATE VS 71% BREAK-EVEN AT -250
- LAC @ SEA, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This is the plainest ask on the board: one passing touchdown from a starting quarterback. Herbert has gone over in three straight and cleared this number in 80% of his last ten, which is the rare case where the streak is comfortably clear of what the price needs. Seattle can keep the total down without keeping the Chargers out of the end zone entirely, and at -250 a miss costs a full unit, so treat it as the anchor rather than the moneymaker.
Trey Mcbride, Anytime TD (+190 at Fanatics)
- +190 at Fanatics vs +115 consensus
- 12 pts of price better than the market across 7 books
- Next best: +125 at Bet365
- ARI @ NYG, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app · First TD sheet for who scores first (free preview)
The Line Shopping sheet flagged this one on price alone: the rest of the market has Mcbride around +115 and Fanatics is out on an island. Nothing in the matchup has changed to justify the gap, which means you are getting paid extra for the same event seven other books are selling cheaper. If that number comes back toward the field before Sunday, the edge goes with it, so this is the pick with a shelf life.
What the market moved
- Chuba Hubbard (CAR) Rush Reception Yds, DET @ CAR: ▲ 46.5 → 89.5 RUSH RECEPTION YDS; 6 BOOKS MOVED
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Rush Reception Yds, DET @ CAR: ▲ 104.5 → 136 RUSH RECEPTION YDS; 6 BOOKS MOVED
- DK Metcalf (PIT) Reception Yds Q1, PIT @ CLE: ▲ 3.5 → 4.5 RECEPTION YDS Q1; 2 BOOKS MOVED
Full list on the Steam Moves cheat sheet.
Learn the method
Every pick above came out of the same routine. The guides behind it:
- NFL player props guide
- How to win on PrizePicks
- How to win on Underdog
- Line shopping and closing line value
The three above are what fits in a free column. Subscribers get the full sheets every week, including the First TD sheet that goes game by game on who opens the scoring, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for putting your own board together, and the line-shopping feed that turns up prices like the Fanatics number on Mcbride. That feed is also where the movement shows up early: Chuba Hubbard's rush and reception line went 46.5 to 89.5 with 6 books moved, and Jahmyr Gibbs went 104.5 to 136 in the same game, which tells you something about how that one is being read. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
